The original inquiry was about returns on cognitive performance. One source of return is the sort of thing you’re talking about here: moving from 99.9999% to 99.999999% accuracy.
A different, but overall much more valuable source of return is increasing the scope of things for which you move from 1% to 99%. It’s much more valuable because for any practically possible level of cognitive capability, there are a lot more things at the low end of predictability than at the high end.
If you want to restrict the discussion only to the first class though, that’s fine.
The inquiry is about sustained linear returns to increases in predictive accuracy.
It’s not enough to show that a jump from 99% predictive accuracy to 99.99% is good.
You have to show that a jump from 99% accuracy to 99.99% is as good as a jump from 99.99% to 99.9999% accuracy.
You aren’t properly engaging with the inquiry I posited.
The original inquiry was about returns on cognitive performance. One source of return is the sort of thing you’re talking about here: moving from 99.9999% to 99.999999% accuracy.
A different, but overall much more valuable source of return is increasing the scope of things for which you move from 1% to 99%. It’s much more valuable because for any practically possible level of cognitive capability, there are a lot more things at the low end of predictability than at the high end.
If you want to restrict the discussion only to the first class though, that’s fine.