Thus, even judging purely by how much you’re likely to move people’s opinions closer or further from the truth, you should avoid arguing for contrarian views unless the situation seems especially favorable, in the sense that you’ll be able to present your case competently and in front of a suitable audience.
Doesn’t this push in the direction of holding contrarian views being useless except as a personal hobby? If so, why argue against mainstream delusional views at all (even as a collection without specifying what they are)? Is the point of your comment that you think it’s possible to make progress by highlighting broad phenomena about the reliability of mainstream views so that people can work out the implications on their own without there being a need for explicit public discussion?
Moreover, there is always the problem of whether you can trust your own contrarian opinions. After all, even if you take the least favorable view of the respectable opinion and the academic mainstream, it is still the case that most contrarians are deluded in even crazier ways. So how do you know that you haven’t in fact become a crackpot yourself?
A natural method to avoid becoming a crackpot is to reveal one’s views for possible critique in a gradual and carefully argued fashion, adjusting them as people point out weaknesses. Of course it might not be a good idea to reveal one’s views regardless (self-preservation; opportunity cost of time) but I don’t think that danger of being a crackpot is a good reason.
These latter questions should, in my opinion, be very high (if not on the top) of the list of priorities of people who are concerned with overcoming bias and increasing their rationality and the accuracy of their beliefs, and one of my major disappointments with LW is that attempts to open discussion about these matters invariably fall flat.
Is the point of your comment that you think it’s possible to make progress by highlighting broad phenomena about the reliability of mainstream views so that people can work out the implications on their own without there being a need for explicit public discussion?
Basically, I believe that exploring the general questions about how mainstream views are generated in practice and what are the implications for their reliability is by far the most fruitful direction for people interested in increasing the accuracy of their beliefs across the board. Of course, if you have a particular interest in some question, you have to grapple with the concrete issues involved, and also a general exploration must be based on concrete case studies. But attacking particular mainstream views head-on may well be counterproductive in every sense, as I noted above.
A natural method to avoid becoming a crackpot is to reveal one’s views for possible critique in a gradual and carefully argued fashion, adjusting them as people point out weaknesses. Of course it might not be a good idea to reveal one’s views regardless (self-preservation; opportunity cost of time) but I don’t think that danger of being a crackpot is a good reason.
That’s assuming you have discussion partners who are knowledgeable, open-minded, and patient enough. However, such people are the most difficult to find exactly in those areas where you’re faced with the Scylla of a deeply flawed mainstream and the Charybdis of even worse crackpot contrarians.
(Please also see my reply to Nick Tarleton, who asked a similar question as the rest of your comment.)
Basically, I believe that exploring the general questions about how mainstream views are generated in practice and what are the implications for their reliability is by far the most fruitful direction for people interested in increasing the accuracy of their beliefs across the board. Of course, if you have a particular interest in some question, you have to grapple with the concrete issues involved, and also a general exploration must be based on concrete case studies. But attacking particular mainstream views head-on may well be counterproductive in every sense, as I noted above.
This is fair; you’ve made your position clear, thanks.
That’s assuming you have discussion partners who are knowledgeable, open-minded, and patient enough. However, such people are the most difficult to find exactly in those areas where you’re faced with the Scylla of a deeply flawed mainstream and the Charybdis of even worse crackpot contrarians.
Agree in general. How about Less Wrong in particular?
Agree in general. How about Less Wrong in particular?
Well, LW is great for discussing a concrete problem if you manage to elicit some interest in it, both because of people’s high general intellectual skills and because of low propensity to emotionally driven reactions that are apt to derail the discussion, even in fairly charged topics (well, except for gender-related ones, I guess). So, yes, LW is very good for this sort of reality-checking if you manage to find people interested in your topic.
Doesn’t this push in the direction of holding contrarian views being useless except as a personal hobby? If so, why argue against mainstream delusional views at all (even as a collection without specifying what they are)? Is the point of your comment that you think it’s possible to make progress by highlighting broad phenomena about the reliability of mainstream views so that people can work out the implications on their own without there being a need for explicit public discussion?
A natural method to avoid becoming a crackpot is to reveal one’s views for possible critique in a gradual and carefully argued fashion, adjusting them as people point out weaknesses. Of course it might not be a good idea to reveal one’s views regardless (self-preservation; opportunity cost of time) but I don’t think that danger of being a crackpot is a good reason.
I’m not sure what you have in mind here. Your post titled Some Heuristics for Evaluating the Soundness of the Academic Mainstream in Unfamiliar Fields was highly upvoted and I myself would be happy to read more along similar lines. Are there examples that you’d point to of attempts to open discussion about these matters falling flat?
Basically, I believe that exploring the general questions about how mainstream views are generated in practice and what are the implications for their reliability is by far the most fruitful direction for people interested in increasing the accuracy of their beliefs across the board. Of course, if you have a particular interest in some question, you have to grapple with the concrete issues involved, and also a general exploration must be based on concrete case studies. But attacking particular mainstream views head-on may well be counterproductive in every sense, as I noted above.
That’s assuming you have discussion partners who are knowledgeable, open-minded, and patient enough. However, such people are the most difficult to find exactly in those areas where you’re faced with the Scylla of a deeply flawed mainstream and the Charybdis of even worse crackpot contrarians.
(Please also see my reply to Nick Tarleton, who asked a similar question as the rest of your comment.)
This is fair; you’ve made your position clear, thanks.
Agree in general. How about Less Wrong in particular?
Well, LW is great for discussing a concrete problem if you manage to elicit some interest in it, both because of people’s high general intellectual skills and because of low propensity to emotionally driven reactions that are apt to derail the discussion, even in fairly charged topics (well, except for gender-related ones, I guess). So, yes, LW is very good for this sort of reality-checking if you manage to find people interested in your topic.