I’d be interested to hear more about this. I’m very skeptical, not of the claim that it’s a multi-dimensional engineering challenge etc. but of the claim that it couldn’t have been done substantially faster than it was.
Empirically speaking, this was already done substantially faster than any drug development process I can think of. The reason it was done relatively quickly was because as much work was done “at risk” as possible, supported by funding guarantees from the government. But that only gets you so far, and there just are steps in the development that need to be done sequentially, taking time. Happy to answer more specific questions.
Thanks! (Strong-upvoting for going against the conventional wisdom here, being polite, and willing to back it all up with discussion. I really hope you are right.)
Is that true? If not, when did large-scale production begin? I guess I want to know what sub-process took 10 months. Was it that they needed 10 months to build the new factories to build the vaccine, because old factories couldn’t be repurposed? Was it that old factories could be repurposed but need new equipment which couldn’t be 3D printed but had to be made in a traditional assembly line which needed to be purpose-built?
It claims that we could have had billions of doses several months ago, if we had been willing to pay the vaccine producers a few billion dollars more early on.
I’d be interested to hear more about this. I’m very skeptical, not of the claim that it’s a multi-dimensional engineering challenge etc. but of the claim that it couldn’t have been done substantially faster than it was.
Empirically speaking, this was already done substantially faster than any drug development process I can think of. The reason it was done relatively quickly was because as much work was done “at risk” as possible, supported by funding guarantees from the government. But that only gets you so far, and there just are steps in the development that need to be done sequentially, taking time. Happy to answer more specific questions.
Thanks! (Strong-upvoting for going against the conventional wisdom here, being polite, and willing to back it all up with discussion. I really hope you are right.)
OK, here goes: This diagram makes it seem that large-scale production only began after Phase II completed: https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-development-evaluation-approval-monitoring
Is that true? If not, when did large-scale production begin? I guess I want to know what sub-process took 10 months. Was it that they needed 10 months to build the new factories to build the vaccine, because old factories couldn’t be repurposed? Was it that old factories could be repurposed but need new equipment which couldn’t be 3D printed but had to be made in a traditional assembly line which needed to be purpose-built?
Why did it took from Feb 24 when Moderna shipped their vaccines to the NIH till Mar 16 till they vaccines where given to a patient?
Why did the phase 1 trial only start Mar 27?
What do you think about this: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/01/fact-of-the-day-get-to-those-rooftops.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marginalrevolution%2Ffeed+%28Marginal+Revolution%29
It claims that we could have had billions of doses several months ago, if we had been willing to pay the vaccine producers a few billion dollars more early on.