If you’re pessimistic about alignment—and especially if you have short timelines like Daniel—I think most of your point-of-no-return-ness should already be in the past.
I unfortunately was not clear about this, but I meant to define it in such a way that this is false by definition—“loss of influence” is defined relative to the amount of influence we currently have. So even if we had a lot more influence 5 years ago, the PONR is when what little influence we have left mostly dries up. :)
I don’t think we should be doing charitable readings at yearly review time! If an author uses a toy model to clarify something, we want the post to say “As a clarifying toy model [...]” rather than making the readers figure it out.
If by some chance this post does make it to further stages of the review, I will heavily edit it, and I’m happy to e.g. add in “As a clarifying toy model...” among other changes.
I unfortunately was not clear about this, but I meant to define it in such a way that this is false by definition—“loss of influence” is defined relative to the amount of influence we currently have. So even if we had a lot more influence 5 years ago, the PONR is when what little influence we have left mostly dries up. :)
If by some chance this post does make it to further stages of the review, I will heavily edit it, and I’m happy to e.g. add in “As a clarifying toy model...” among other changes.