Can you elaborate on why you think that genetic modification is more prone to creating inequality than other kinds of technology? You mentioned religious reasons in your original comment. Are there other reasons? On priors, I might expect it to follow a typical cost curve where it gets cheaper and more accessible over time, and where the most valuable modifications are subsidized for some people who can’t afford them.
You are right. When I wrote my initial comment, I believed the argument was self-evident and did not require elaboration. However, “self-evidence” is not an objective concept, and I likely do not share the same socio-cultural environment as most users of this platform. Upon reading your comment and Ben Pace’s, I realize that this apparent self-evidence is far from universally shared and requires further explanation. I have already expanded on my argument in my previous response, but here are the specific reasons why I think the author’s project (and indeed the transhumanist project of enhancing human beings) raises unprecedented issues in terms of increasing inequality, more so than most technological innovations such as running water or mobile phones.
First, John Rawls’s veil of ignorance constitutes a strong philosophical and rational argument for considering excessive inequalities as unjust and morally condemnable (edit : this is not my personal claim but that of John Rawls, with whom I fully agree). This veil of ignorance aligns utilitarianism with Kant morality, as it invites the moral agent to step outside their specific case and evaluate the morality of a situation from a more universal, distanced, and objective perspective. While utilitarianism and effective altruism encourage giving to fund actions aimed at reducing suffering and increasing happiness, this can also be seen, in part, as a voluntary redistribution of wealth to correct excessive inequalities, which are unjust and a cause of suffering (since the feeling of injustice itself constitutes a form of suffering). In most countries, to varying degrees, states also impose redistribution through taxation and various social mechanisms to combat excessive inequalities. Nevertheless, global inequalities continue to grow and remain a very serious concern.
Technological innovations fit into the problem of inequality insofar as it is generally the wealthiest who benefit from them, or at least benefit first. However, I do not dispute the argument made by liberal economists that the costs of technological innovations tend to decrease over time due to the amortization of R&D investments, the profitability of patents, mass production, and economies of scale, eventually benefiting everyone. Still, this is an empirical observation that must be nuanced. Not all technological innovations have followed the same trajectory; scenarios vary widely.
The oldest technological inventions (mastery of fire, stone tools, spears, bows, etc.) emerged in non-storing hunter-gatherer societies. In the absence of wealth accumulation, these were likely relatively egalitarian societies (cf. the works of Alain Testart on this subject). For a long time, technological innovations, which were rare, could benefit the entire population within a given culture. This may seem anecdotal and almost digressive, but we are talking about hundreds of thousands of years, which represent the overwhelming majority of human history.
Then, if we consider an emblematic example of a highly valuable technological innovation—access to potable water—this began appearing in the Roman Empire about 2,000 years ago but faced significant challenges in reaching modest populations. Even today, about a quarter of humanity—2 billion people out of 8 billion—still lack access to this technology, which we might consider essential.
By contrast, mobile phones, although they could be seen as gadgets compared to the previous example, have spread like wildfire in just a few decades and are now almost as present in the global population as potable water. These two examples illustrate that the time it takes for a technology to spread can vary dramatically, and this is not neutral regarding inequality. Waiting 30 years versus 2,000 years for a technology to benefit the less wealthy is far from equivalent.
Another nuance to consider is whether significant qualitative differences persist during the spread of an invention. Potable water tends to vary little whether one is rich or poor. Mobile phones differ somewhat more. Personal automobiles even more so, with a significant portion of the population accessing them only through collective services, despite this invention being over a century old. As for airplanes, the wealthiest enjoy luxurious private jets, while those slightly less wealthy can only access collective flights—and a large part, perhaps the majority of the world’s population, has no access to this technology at all, more than a century after its invention. This is an example worth keeping in mind.
Moreover, not all innovations are equal. While mobile phones might seem like gadgets compared to potable water, food and health are vital, and technological innovations with a significant impact in these areas are of great value. This was true of the mastery of fire for heating and cooking, tools for hunting and defense, techniques for producing clothing, construction methods for shelters, and, more recently, potable water, hot water, and eventually medicine, which, while it does not make humans immortal (yet!), at least prolongs life and alleviates physical disabilities and suffering. Excessive wealth inequalities create excessive inequalities in access to medicine. This is precisely why many countries have long implemented countermeasures against such inequalities, to the point that in some countries, like France or Sweden, there exists a nearly perfect equality of access to healthcare through social security systems. In the United States, Obama-era legislation (Obamacare) also aimed to reduce these inequalities.
The innovation proposed by the author—enhancing the intelligence of adult individuals by several dozen or even hundreds of IQ points—would constitute an extremely impactful innovation. The anticipated IQ difference would be comparable to the gap separating Homo sapiens from Neanderthals or even Homo erectus (impossible to quantify precisely, but paleoanthropologists suspect the existence of genetic mutations related to neural connectivity that might have given Sapiens an advantage over Neanderthals; as for Erectus, we know its encephalization quotient was lower). Let’s be honest—if we were suddenly thrust into Rawls’s veil of ignorance, we would tremble at the idea of potentially awakening as a poor Erectus condemned to remain an Erectus, while an elite group of peers might benefit from an upgrade to Sapiens status. Yes, this is indeed a terrifying inequality.
Unlike an expensive treatment that addresses only a few patients, in this case, 100% of the population would have a tremendous interest in benefiting from this innovation. It is difficult to imagine a mechanism equivalent to social security or insurance here. Everyone would likely have to pay out of pocket. Furthermore, it is clear that the technology would initially be very expensive, and the author himself targets an elite as the first beneficiaries. The author envisions a scientific elite responsible for addressing AI alignment issues, which is appealing to some readers of this forum who may feel concerned. However, in reality, let’s not be deceived: as with space tourism, the first clients would primarily be the extremely wealthy (though AI experts themselves are relatively affluent).
How many generations would it take for everyone to benefit from such technology? In 2,000 years, potable water is still not universally accessible. Over a century after its invention, private airplanes remain a luxury for a tiny minority on Earth—a situation unchanged for decades. A century exceeds the life expectancy of a human in a developed country. As Keynes said, “In the long run, we are all dead.” The horizon for a human is their lifetime. Ultimately, only in the case of a rapid diffusion, like mobile phones, would inequality be less of a concern. Personally, however, I would bet more on the private jet scenario, simply because the starting cost would likely be enormous, as is the case for most cutting-edge therapies.
Even in the ideal—or, let’s be honest, utopian—scenario where the entire global population could benefit from this intelligence upgrade within 30 years, this innovation would still be unprecedented in human history. For the first time, wealthy individuals could pay to become intellectually superior. The prospect is quite frightening and resembles a dystopian science fiction scenario. Until now, money could buy many things, but humans remained equal before the biological lottery of birth, particularly regarding intellect. For the first time, this form of equality before chance would be abolished, and economic inequality would be compounded by intellectual inequality.
Admittedly, some might argue that education already constitutes a form of intellectual inequality linked to wealth. Nevertheless, the connection between IQ and education is not as immediate and also depends on the efforts and talents of the student (and teachers). Moreover, several countries worldwide have very egalitarian education systems (notably many in Europe). Here, we are talking about intelligence enhancement through a pill or injection, which is an entirely different matter. As advantages stack up, inequalities become extreme, raising not only ethical or moral questions but also concerns about societal cohesion and stability. Even over 30 years, a major conflict between “superhumans” and “subhumans” is conceivable. The former might seek to dominate the latter—or dominate them further if one considers that excessive economic inequality already constitutes a form of domination. Alternatively, the latter might rebel out of fear or seek to eliminate the former. Edit : Most of the literature on collapsology identifies excessive social inequalities as a recurring factor in societal collapse (for instance Jared Diamond, Amin Maalouf etc).
This risk seems all the more significant because the idea of modifying human beings is likely to be rejected by many religions (notably the Catholic Church, which remains conservative on bioethical matters, though other religions are no more open-minded). Religion could act as a barrier to the global adoption of such technology, making the prospect of rapid diffusion even less plausible and the risk of societal instability or fracture all the greater. It is important to remember that technologies do not automatically spread; there may be cultural resistance or outright rejection (a point also studied in detail by Alain Testart, particularly concerning the Australian Aborigines).
In conclusion, I believe the hypothesis of a partitioning of humanity—whether social or even biological (a speciation scenario akin to Asimov’s Terrans and Spacers)—is a hypothesis to be taken very seriously with this type of project. A convinced transhumanist might see this as a positive prospect, but in my view, great caution is warranted. As with AGI, it is essential to think twice before rushing headlong into such ventures. History has too often seen bold projects end in bloodshed. I believe that if humanity is to be augmented, it must ensure that the majority are not left behind.
Edit : for some reason I don’t understand, I can’t add links to this comment as I intended.
Thanks for this elaboration. One reason I would be more hopeful than in the case of private airplanes (less so potable water) is that it seems like, while providing me a private airplane may mostly only benefit me and my family by making my life more leisurely, providing me or my children genetic enhancement may be very socially productive, at least improving our productivity and making us consume less healthcare resources. So it would seem possible to end up with an arrangement where it’s socially financed and the surplus is shared.
It’s interesting that you describe humans as remaining “equal in the biological lottery”. Of course, to the humans, when the lottery is decided before they are born, and they are given only one life to live, it doesn’t feel very equal when some of them win it and others lose. It’s not obvious to me that inequality based on who spends money to enhance themselves or their family’s biology is worse than inequality based on random chance. It seems like effects on social cohesion or group conflict may result either way regardless of the source of the inequality.
Do you have any suggestions for how genetic enhancement technology could hypothetically be developed in a better way so that the majority is not left behind? Or in your view would it be best for it to never be developed at all?
Indeed, nature, and particularly biology, disregards our human considerations of fairness. The lottery of birth can appear as the greatest conceivable inequality. But in this matter, one must apply the Stoic doctrine that distinguishes between what depends on us and what does not. Morality concerns what depends on us, the choices that belong to the moral agents we are.
If I present the lottery of birth in an egalitarian light, it is specifically in the sense that we, as humans, have little control over this lottery. Particularly regarding IQ at birth, regardless of our wealth, we were all, until now, almost on equal footing in our inability to considerably influence this biological fact imposed upon us (I discussed in my previous comments the differences I see between the author’s proposal and education, but also between conventional medicine).
If the author’s project succeeds, IQ will become mainly a socially originated fact, like wealth. And inequality in wealth would then be accompanied by inequality in IQ, proportional or even exponential (if feedback mechanisms occur, considering that having a higher IQ might enable a wealthy individual to become even wealthier and thus access the latest innovations for further enhancement).
We already struggle to establish social mechanisms to redistribute wealth and limit the growth of inequalities; I can hardly imagine what it would become if we also had to address inequalities in access to IQ-enhancing technologies in a short time. I fear that all this could lead to a chaotic or dystopian scenario, possibly resulting in a partition of the human species and/or a civilizational collapse.
As for having a solution to ensure that this type of genetic engineering technology does not result in such a catastrophic outcome, I do not claim to have a miracle solution. As with other existential risks, what can be suggested is to try to slow down the trend (which is likely inevitable in the long term) instead of seeking to accelerate it, to think as much as possible in advance, to raise awareness of the risks in order to enable collective recognition of these issues (what I tries to do here), and to hope that with more time and this proactive reflection, the transition will proceed more smoothly, that international treaties will emerge, and that state mechanisms will gradually be put in place to counter or mitigate this unprecedented source of inequality.
Can you elaborate on why you think that genetic modification is more prone to creating inequality than other kinds of technology? You mentioned religious reasons in your original comment. Are there other reasons? On priors, I might expect it to follow a typical cost curve where it gets cheaper and more accessible over time, and where the most valuable modifications are subsidized for some people who can’t afford them.
You are right. When I wrote my initial comment, I believed the argument was self-evident and did not require elaboration. However, “self-evidence” is not an objective concept, and I likely do not share the same socio-cultural environment as most users of this platform. Upon reading your comment and Ben Pace’s, I realize that this apparent self-evidence is far from universally shared and requires further explanation. I have already expanded on my argument in my previous response, but here are the specific reasons why I think the author’s project (and indeed the transhumanist project of enhancing human beings) raises unprecedented issues in terms of increasing inequality, more so than most technological innovations such as running water or mobile phones.
First, John Rawls’s veil of ignorance constitutes a strong philosophical and rational argument for considering excessive inequalities as unjust and morally condemnable (edit : this is not my personal claim but that of John Rawls, with whom I fully agree). This veil of ignorance aligns utilitarianism with Kant morality, as it invites the moral agent to step outside their specific case and evaluate the morality of a situation from a more universal, distanced, and objective perspective. While utilitarianism and effective altruism encourage giving to fund actions aimed at reducing suffering and increasing happiness, this can also be seen, in part, as a voluntary redistribution of wealth to correct excessive inequalities, which are unjust and a cause of suffering (since the feeling of injustice itself constitutes a form of suffering). In most countries, to varying degrees, states also impose redistribution through taxation and various social mechanisms to combat excessive inequalities. Nevertheless, global inequalities continue to grow and remain a very serious concern.
Technological innovations fit into the problem of inequality insofar as it is generally the wealthiest who benefit from them, or at least benefit first. However, I do not dispute the argument made by liberal economists that the costs of technological innovations tend to decrease over time due to the amortization of R&D investments, the profitability of patents, mass production, and economies of scale, eventually benefiting everyone. Still, this is an empirical observation that must be nuanced. Not all technological innovations have followed the same trajectory; scenarios vary widely.
The oldest technological inventions (mastery of fire, stone tools, spears, bows, etc.) emerged in non-storing hunter-gatherer societies. In the absence of wealth accumulation, these were likely relatively egalitarian societies (cf. the works of Alain Testart on this subject). For a long time, technological innovations, which were rare, could benefit the entire population within a given culture. This may seem anecdotal and almost digressive, but we are talking about hundreds of thousands of years, which represent the overwhelming majority of human history.
Then, if we consider an emblematic example of a highly valuable technological innovation—access to potable water—this began appearing in the Roman Empire about 2,000 years ago but faced significant challenges in reaching modest populations. Even today, about a quarter of humanity—2 billion people out of 8 billion—still lack access to this technology, which we might consider essential.
By contrast, mobile phones, although they could be seen as gadgets compared to the previous example, have spread like wildfire in just a few decades and are now almost as present in the global population as potable water. These two examples illustrate that the time it takes for a technology to spread can vary dramatically, and this is not neutral regarding inequality. Waiting 30 years versus 2,000 years for a technology to benefit the less wealthy is far from equivalent.
Another nuance to consider is whether significant qualitative differences persist during the spread of an invention. Potable water tends to vary little whether one is rich or poor. Mobile phones differ somewhat more. Personal automobiles even more so, with a significant portion of the population accessing them only through collective services, despite this invention being over a century old. As for airplanes, the wealthiest enjoy luxurious private jets, while those slightly less wealthy can only access collective flights—and a large part, perhaps the majority of the world’s population, has no access to this technology at all, more than a century after its invention. This is an example worth keeping in mind.
Moreover, not all innovations are equal. While mobile phones might seem like gadgets compared to potable water, food and health are vital, and technological innovations with a significant impact in these areas are of great value. This was true of the mastery of fire for heating and cooking, tools for hunting and defense, techniques for producing clothing, construction methods for shelters, and, more recently, potable water, hot water, and eventually medicine, which, while it does not make humans immortal (yet!), at least prolongs life and alleviates physical disabilities and suffering. Excessive wealth inequalities create excessive inequalities in access to medicine. This is precisely why many countries have long implemented countermeasures against such inequalities, to the point that in some countries, like France or Sweden, there exists a nearly perfect equality of access to healthcare through social security systems. In the United States, Obama-era legislation (Obamacare) also aimed to reduce these inequalities.
The innovation proposed by the author—enhancing the intelligence of adult individuals by several dozen or even hundreds of IQ points—would constitute an extremely impactful innovation. The anticipated IQ difference would be comparable to the gap separating Homo sapiens from Neanderthals or even Homo erectus (impossible to quantify precisely, but paleoanthropologists suspect the existence of genetic mutations related to neural connectivity that might have given Sapiens an advantage over Neanderthals; as for Erectus, we know its encephalization quotient was lower). Let’s be honest—if we were suddenly thrust into Rawls’s veil of ignorance, we would tremble at the idea of potentially awakening as a poor Erectus condemned to remain an Erectus, while an elite group of peers might benefit from an upgrade to Sapiens status. Yes, this is indeed a terrifying inequality.
Unlike an expensive treatment that addresses only a few patients, in this case, 100% of the population would have a tremendous interest in benefiting from this innovation. It is difficult to imagine a mechanism equivalent to social security or insurance here. Everyone would likely have to pay out of pocket. Furthermore, it is clear that the technology would initially be very expensive, and the author himself targets an elite as the first beneficiaries. The author envisions a scientific elite responsible for addressing AI alignment issues, which is appealing to some readers of this forum who may feel concerned. However, in reality, let’s not be deceived: as with space tourism, the first clients would primarily be the extremely wealthy (though AI experts themselves are relatively affluent).
How many generations would it take for everyone to benefit from such technology? In 2,000 years, potable water is still not universally accessible. Over a century after its invention, private airplanes remain a luxury for a tiny minority on Earth—a situation unchanged for decades. A century exceeds the life expectancy of a human in a developed country. As Keynes said, “In the long run, we are all dead.” The horizon for a human is their lifetime. Ultimately, only in the case of a rapid diffusion, like mobile phones, would inequality be less of a concern. Personally, however, I would bet more on the private jet scenario, simply because the starting cost would likely be enormous, as is the case for most cutting-edge therapies.
Even in the ideal—or, let’s be honest, utopian—scenario where the entire global population could benefit from this intelligence upgrade within 30 years, this innovation would still be unprecedented in human history. For the first time, wealthy individuals could pay to become intellectually superior. The prospect is quite frightening and resembles a dystopian science fiction scenario. Until now, money could buy many things, but humans remained equal before the biological lottery of birth, particularly regarding intellect. For the first time, this form of equality before chance would be abolished, and economic inequality would be compounded by intellectual inequality.
Admittedly, some might argue that education already constitutes a form of intellectual inequality linked to wealth. Nevertheless, the connection between IQ and education is not as immediate and also depends on the efforts and talents of the student (and teachers). Moreover, several countries worldwide have very egalitarian education systems (notably many in Europe). Here, we are talking about intelligence enhancement through a pill or injection, which is an entirely different matter. As advantages stack up, inequalities become extreme, raising not only ethical or moral questions but also concerns about societal cohesion and stability. Even over 30 years, a major conflict between “superhumans” and “subhumans” is conceivable. The former might seek to dominate the latter—or dominate them further if one considers that excessive economic inequality already constitutes a form of domination. Alternatively, the latter might rebel out of fear or seek to eliminate the former. Edit : Most of the literature on collapsology identifies excessive social inequalities as a recurring factor in societal collapse (for instance Jared Diamond, Amin Maalouf etc).
This risk seems all the more significant because the idea of modifying human beings is likely to be rejected by many religions (notably the Catholic Church, which remains conservative on bioethical matters, though other religions are no more open-minded). Religion could act as a barrier to the global adoption of such technology, making the prospect of rapid diffusion even less plausible and the risk of societal instability or fracture all the greater. It is important to remember that technologies do not automatically spread; there may be cultural resistance or outright rejection (a point also studied in detail by Alain Testart, particularly concerning the Australian Aborigines).
In conclusion, I believe the hypothesis of a partitioning of humanity—whether social or even biological (a speciation scenario akin to Asimov’s Terrans and Spacers)—is a hypothesis to be taken very seriously with this type of project. A convinced transhumanist might see this as a positive prospect, but in my view, great caution is warranted. As with AGI, it is essential to think twice before rushing headlong into such ventures. History has too often seen bold projects end in bloodshed. I believe that if humanity is to be augmented, it must ensure that the majority are not left behind.
Edit : for some reason I don’t understand, I can’t add links to this comment as I intended.
Thanks for this elaboration. One reason I would be more hopeful than in the case of private airplanes (less so potable water) is that it seems like, while providing me a private airplane may mostly only benefit me and my family by making my life more leisurely, providing me or my children genetic enhancement may be very socially productive, at least improving our productivity and making us consume less healthcare resources. So it would seem possible to end up with an arrangement where it’s socially financed and the surplus is shared.
It’s interesting that you describe humans as remaining “equal in the biological lottery”. Of course, to the humans, when the lottery is decided before they are born, and they are given only one life to live, it doesn’t feel very equal when some of them win it and others lose. It’s not obvious to me that inequality based on who spends money to enhance themselves or their family’s biology is worse than inequality based on random chance. It seems like effects on social cohesion or group conflict may result either way regardless of the source of the inequality.
Do you have any suggestions for how genetic enhancement technology could hypothetically be developed in a better way so that the majority is not left behind? Or in your view would it be best for it to never be developed at all?
Indeed, nature, and particularly biology, disregards our human considerations of fairness. The lottery of birth can appear as the greatest conceivable inequality. But in this matter, one must apply the Stoic doctrine that distinguishes between what depends on us and what does not. Morality concerns what depends on us, the choices that belong to the moral agents we are.
If I present the lottery of birth in an egalitarian light, it is specifically in the sense that we, as humans, have little control over this lottery. Particularly regarding IQ at birth, regardless of our wealth, we were all, until now, almost on equal footing in our inability to considerably influence this biological fact imposed upon us (I discussed in my previous comments the differences I see between the author’s proposal and education, but also between conventional medicine).
If the author’s project succeeds, IQ will become mainly a socially originated fact, like wealth. And inequality in wealth would then be accompanied by inequality in IQ, proportional or even exponential (if feedback mechanisms occur, considering that having a higher IQ might enable a wealthy individual to become even wealthier and thus access the latest innovations for further enhancement).
We already struggle to establish social mechanisms to redistribute wealth and limit the growth of inequalities; I can hardly imagine what it would become if we also had to address inequalities in access to IQ-enhancing technologies in a short time. I fear that all this could lead to a chaotic or dystopian scenario, possibly resulting in a partition of the human species and/or a civilizational collapse.
As for having a solution to ensure that this type of genetic engineering technology does not result in such a catastrophic outcome, I do not claim to have a miracle solution. As with other existential risks, what can be suggested is to try to slow down the trend (which is likely inevitable in the long term) instead of seeking to accelerate it, to think as much as possible in advance, to raise awareness of the risks in order to enable collective recognition of these issues (what I tries to do here), and to hope that with more time and this proactive reflection, the transition will proceed more smoothly, that international treaties will emerge, and that state mechanisms will gradually be put in place to counter or mitigate this unprecedented source of inequality.