An LLM might be able to take a few steps of advanced research (though not necessarily more than that) into many current topics (at once) if it was pre-trained on the right synthetic data. Continual improvement through search/self-play also seems to be getting closer.
Even without autonomous research, another round of scaling (that’s currently unaffordable) gets unlocked by economic value of becoming able to do routine long-horizon tasks. The question is always the least possible capability sufficient to keep the avalanche going.
An LLM might be able to take a few steps of advanced research (though not necessarily more than that) into many current topics (at once) if it was pre-trained on the right synthetic data. Continual improvement through search/self-play also seems to be getting closer.
Even without autonomous research, another round of scaling (that’s currently unaffordable) gets unlocked by economic value of becoming able to do routine long-horizon tasks. The question is always the least possible capability sufficient to keep the avalanche going.