[retracted: I read the question too quickly, misunderstood it]
My impression, after some thought and discussion (over the last ~1 year or so), is that people being smarter / predicting better will probably decrease the number of wars and make them less terrible. That said, there are of course tails; perhaps some specific wars could be far worse (one country being much better at destroying another).
As I understand it, many wars in part started due to overconfidence; both sides are overconfident on their odds of success (due to many reasons). If they were properly calibrated, they would more likely partake in immediate trades/consessions or similar, rather than take fights, which are rather risky.
Similarly, I wouldn’t expect different AGIs to physically fight each other often at all.
[retracted: I read the question too quickly, misunderstood it]
My impression, after some thought and discussion (over the last ~1 year or so), is that people being smarter / predicting better will probably decrease the number of wars and make them less terrible. That said, there are of course tails; perhaps some specific wars could be far worse (one country being much better at destroying another).
As I understand it, many wars in part started due to overconfidence; both sides are overconfident on their odds of success (due to many reasons). If they were properly calibrated, they would more likely partake in immediate trades/consessions or similar, rather than take fights, which are rather risky.
Similarly, I wouldn’t expect different AGIs to physically fight each other often at all.
Still interesting and relevant I think! It answers: “What are the externalities of GOOD / BAD predictions on wars?”