Also, worth noting there’s a separate feature we’re thinking about which is to introduce “claims”, which come with actual probabilities attached (and which other users can add their own probabilities too), influenced by arbital.com’s implementation. Which is where I think it makes more sense to actually convey explicit confidence.
I actually really like the claims idea. One of the limitations I’ve found with PredictionBook is that I can make a prediction, but I can’t lay out my evidence or reasoning (nor can others make long-form responses to tell me why prediction is wrong). Allowing a post to make formal claims with probabilities attached would make it easier to use LessWrong to practice rationality as well as theorize about it.
Also, worth noting there’s a separate feature we’re thinking about which is to introduce “claims”, which come with actual probabilities attached (and which other users can add their own probabilities too), influenced by arbital.com’s implementation. Which is where I think it makes more sense to actually convey explicit confidence.
I actually really like the claims idea. One of the limitations I’ve found with PredictionBook is that I can make a prediction, but I can’t lay out my evidence or reasoning (nor can others make long-form responses to tell me why prediction is wrong). Allowing a post to make formal claims with probabilities attached would make it easier to use LessWrong to practice rationality as well as theorize about it.