I actually really like the claims idea. One of the limitations I’ve found with PredictionBook is that I can make a prediction, but I can’t lay out my evidence or reasoning (nor can others make long-form responses to tell me why prediction is wrong). Allowing a post to make formal claims with probabilities attached would make it easier to use LessWrong to practice rationality as well as theorize about it.
I actually really like the claims idea. One of the limitations I’ve found with PredictionBook is that I can make a prediction, but I can’t lay out my evidence or reasoning (nor can others make long-form responses to tell me why prediction is wrong). Allowing a post to make formal claims with probabilities attached would make it easier to use LessWrong to practice rationality as well as theorize about it.