This seems overall consistent with Thane’s statements in the post? They don’t make any claims about current AIs not being a transformative technology. Indeed, they do state that current AIs are a powerful technology.
Third and last paragraph I try to explain why the OP and prominent experts like Matthew Barnett and Richard Ngos and others all model much harder standards for when AI will be transformative.
For a summary: advancing technology is mostly perspiration not inspiration, automating the perspiration will be transformative.
This seems overall consistent with Thane’s statements in the post? They don’t make any claims about current AIs not being a transformative technology. Indeed, they do state that current AIs are a powerful technology.
Third and last paragraph I try to explain why the OP and prominent experts like Matthew Barnett and Richard Ngos and others all model much harder standards for when AI will be transformative.
For a summary: advancing technology is mostly perspiration not inspiration, automating the perspiration will be transformative.