I agree that the “I don’t want to talk about this” reaction can be further decomposed into people who don’t want to talk about it primarily because they are themselves rapists and people who don’t want to talk about it for other reasons.
I agree that people who have what you’re calling “aversive” reactions to the topic might potentially downvote the main post; indeed, I expect many of them actually have done so. (I’d be inclined to also call the reaction of people who don’t want to talk about it primarily because they are themselves rapists “aversive”, for what that’s worth.)
I agree that there’s an important distinction between those who downvote the post and move on, and those who engage in the kind of retaliatory downvoting you describe (sometimes referred to here as “karmassassination”). I generally assume that retaliatory downvoting (which, incidentally, I disapprove of) is an expression of hostility. We could have a whole psychoanalytic armchair discussion here about whether that hostility in this case is more likely to be a function of what you’re calling “aversion” here, or of being oneself a rapist, or of various other things, but I don’t have strong opinions about that.
You may be right that the hostility gender-related discussions generally elicit is not sufficient to explain the reaction to your post; you may additionally be right in your (implicit) suggestion that the reactions of LW rapists specifically account for the difference. I don’t have a strong opinion about this over and above my general skepticism about privileged hypotheses.
I find it likely that the percentage of rapists on LessWrong is roughly comparable to the percentage of rapists in U.S. colleges. Maybe a little lower, maybe a little higher, but not significantly different. In general, I expect that rapists (as we’re using the term here) are present in any large group, and that I have no way of distinguishing them from non-rapists.
I find it likely that flaws in the article do very little to motivate the downvoting in and of themselves (that is, I expect that an equally flawed article about a less emotionally charged topic would receive far fewer downvotes) but much as with formatting, they might do a lot to make downvoting permissible.
If you were one of those men, wouldn’t you have a strong opinion on this matter? Do you think you’d feel inclined to down vote this article if you were one of them?
Incidentally: do you assume I’m not one of those men? If so, on what basis? In any case: were I one of those men, I suspect my inclination to downvote the article would be greater than if I weren’t.
Does that answer your questions (both explicit and implicit)?
I find it likely that the percentage of rapists on LessWrong is roughly comparable to the percentage of rapists in U.S. colleges. Maybe a little lower, maybe a little higher, but not significantly different.
Given a base rate of 6%, I’d be astounded if the rate among male Less Wrong commenters were lower than 3% or higher than 8%; and I would dismiss out of hand a claim that it was lower than 1% or higher than 10%.
In general, I expect that rapists (as we’re using the term here) are present in any large group, and that I have no way of distinguishing them from non-rapists.
It’s to the benefit of women and normal men to develop accurate heuristics to distinguish rapist men from normal men. The “Schrödinger’s Rapist” situation results from such heuristics being absent, or unavailable due to lack of information.
(Yes, I feel okay saying that the 94% of men who are not rapists are “normal men” … and that rapists are not.)
One of the bigger heuristics suggested by the Lisak & Miller study is that repeat rapists commit (on average) about ten times as many non-rape violent crimes as normal men do.
Some other studies suggest other heuristics: rapists have more anger and hostility toward women than normal men do, and rapists have less empathy toward women who have been sexually assaulted than normal men do.
Basically agreed with all of this, though I consider non-male-on-female rape more important than you seem to, which may simply reflect the greater saliency of non-heterosexual relationships to my life more generally.
One of the bigger heuristics suggested by the Lisak & Miller study is that repeat rapists commit (on average) about ten times as many non-rape violent crimes as normal men do.
Which definition of “rapist” was the study using?
Edit: also that reminds me of the argument against acceptance of gays based on statistics showing male homosexuals being ten times more to engage in pedophilia than male heterosexuals.
Here it is. The interesting part is that they ask men whether they have committed particular acts (see the study for which) that legally constitute rape; they don’t ask whether the men think of themselves as rapists.
Edit: also that reminds me of the argument against acceptance of gays based on statistics showing male homosexuals being ten times more to engage in pedophilia than male heterosexuals.
I doubt that claim — and I’m assuming you’re using a folk sense of “pedophilia”, since clinically that term refers to a predilection rather than an act that a person can engage in.
It seems more likely to me that gay sexual relationships which straddle the legal age of consent (in some states, this can mean an 18-year-old boy with a 17-year-old boyfriend) are many, many times more likely to be treated as a criminal issue than straight sexual relationships with the same age gap.
I notice they didn’t bother separating out their data by which of the “rape” questions they answered yes to.
Including the ‘statutory’ kind? If so the study is approximately worthless. (ie. Whatever potential benefit it could have is likely offset by the equivocation it encourages.)
This is by far not the only example of a trait correlated with crime that I suspect you’d rather not act on. I chose homosexuality as the closest analogy since both can be interpreted either as an act or as a predilection and thus a property of the person.
It seems more likely to me that gay sexual relationships which straddle the legal age of consent (in some states, this can mean an 18-year-old boy with a 17-year-old boyfriend) are many, many times more likely to be treated as a criminal issue than straight sexual relationships with the same age gap.
I’m not convinced that’s actually true these days.
Well, the statistic in question is based on data I heard from gay rights advocates. They were saying that only 30% of pedophilia cases are committed by gays and counting on their audience not being Bayesians.
I find it likely that the percentage of rapists on LessWrong is roughly comparable to the percentage of rapists in U.S. colleges. Maybe a little lower, maybe a little higher, but not significantly different. In general, I expect that rapists (as we’re using the term here) are present in any large group, and that I have no way of distinguishing them from non-rapists.
Why? The demographics of LW are unusual in all kinds of way. e.g., a sex ratio of about 9 males per female (and males tend to rape more), average IQ probably in the 130s (and high-IQ people are less likely to have any sex, let alone non-consensual one), etc. OTOH, given that there are effects with different signs, I’m not sure what the sign of the total effect would be.
Nothing brilliant: given no reason to systematically shift my local expectation in one direction or another, my local expectation defaults to my global expectation.
For me, it’s more like “the overall evidence probably strongly points some way, but I can’t be bothered to do the maths and figure out which way it points”.
Does that answer your questions (both explicit and implicit)?
Yes, thank you.
Incidentally: do you assume I’m not one of those men? If so, on what basis?
I assume you are most likely not one of those men based on the assumption that they are only somewhere around 6% of the population. I’d put the odds slightly higher since you are interested enough in the topic to write in the comments and initially said something dismissive, but not a whole lot higher. Most likely you’re a nice and respectful guy in control of your impulses in as much as the rest of the population, and I prefer to give people the benefit of the doubt.
I agree that the “I don’t want to talk about this” reaction can be further decomposed into people who don’t want to talk about it primarily because they are themselves rapists and people who don’t want to talk about it for other reasons.
I agree that people who have what you’re calling “aversive” reactions to the topic might potentially downvote the main post; indeed, I expect many of them actually have done so. (I’d be inclined to also call the reaction of people who don’t want to talk about it primarily because they are themselves rapists “aversive”, for what that’s worth.)
I agree that there’s an important distinction between those who downvote the post and move on, and those who engage in the kind of retaliatory downvoting you describe (sometimes referred to here as “karmassassination”).
I generally assume that retaliatory downvoting (which, incidentally, I disapprove of) is an expression of hostility.
We could have a whole psychoanalytic armchair discussion here about whether that hostility in this case is more likely to be a function of what you’re calling “aversion” here, or of being oneself a rapist, or of various other things, but I don’t have strong opinions about that.
You may be right that the hostility gender-related discussions generally elicit is not sufficient to explain the reaction to your post; you may additionally be right in your (implicit) suggestion that the reactions of LW rapists specifically account for the difference. I don’t have a strong opinion about this over and above my general skepticism about privileged hypotheses.
I find it likely that the percentage of rapists on LessWrong is roughly comparable to the percentage of rapists in U.S. colleges. Maybe a little lower, maybe a little higher, but not significantly different. In general, I expect that rapists (as we’re using the term here) are present in any large group, and that I have no way of distinguishing them from non-rapists.
I find it likely that flaws in the article do very little to motivate the downvoting in and of themselves (that is, I expect that an equally flawed article about a less emotionally charged topic would receive far fewer downvotes) but much as with formatting, they might do a lot to make downvoting permissible.
Incidentally: do you assume I’m not one of those men? If so, on what basis?
In any case: were I one of those men, I suspect my inclination to downvote the article would be greater than if I weren’t.
Does that answer your questions (both explicit and implicit)?
Given a base rate of 6%, I’d be astounded if the rate among male Less Wrong commenters were lower than 3% or higher than 8%; and I would dismiss out of hand a claim that it was lower than 1% or higher than 10%.
It’s to the benefit of women and normal men to develop accurate heuristics to distinguish rapist men from normal men. The “Schrödinger’s Rapist” situation results from such heuristics being absent, or unavailable due to lack of information.
(Yes, I feel okay saying that the 94% of men who are not rapists are “normal men” … and that rapists are not.)
One of the bigger heuristics suggested by the Lisak & Miller study is that repeat rapists commit (on average) about ten times as many non-rape violent crimes as normal men do.
Some other studies suggest other heuristics: rapists have more anger and hostility toward women than normal men do, and rapists have less empathy toward women who have been sexually assaulted than normal men do.
Basically agreed with all of this, though I consider non-male-on-female rape more important than you seem to, which may simply reflect the greater saliency of non-heterosexual relationships to my life more generally.
Which definition of “rapist” was the study using?
Edit: also that reminds me of the argument against acceptance of gays based on statistics showing male homosexuals being ten times more to engage in pedophilia than male heterosexuals.
Here it is. The interesting part is that they ask men whether they have committed particular acts (see the study for which) that legally constitute rape; they don’t ask whether the men think of themselves as rapists.
I doubt that claim — and I’m assuming you’re using a folk sense of “pedophilia”, since clinically that term refers to a predilection rather than an act that a person can engage in.
It seems more likely to me that gay sexual relationships which straddle the legal age of consent (in some states, this can mean an 18-year-old boy with a 17-year-old boyfriend) are many, many times more likely to be treated as a criminal issue than straight sexual relationships with the same age gap.
I notice they didn’t bother separating out their data by which of the “rape” questions they answered yes to.
Including the ‘statutory’ kind? If so the study is approximately worthless. (ie. Whatever potential benefit it could have is likely offset by the equivocation it encourages.)
This is by far not the only example of a trait correlated with crime that I suspect you’d rather not act on. I chose homosexuality as the closest analogy since both can be interpreted either as an act or as a predilection and thus a property of the person.
I’m not convinced that’s actually true these days.
Anecdotes! I have contrary ones.
But what did you think of the Lisak & Miller study, and their definition of rape that you asked about?
That “statistics” is unlikely to be unbiased.
Well, the statistic in question is based on data I heard from gay rights advocates. They were saying that only 30% of pedophilia cases are committed by gays and counting on their audience not being Bayesians.
Why? The demographics of LW are unusual in all kinds of way. e.g., a sex ratio of about 9 males per female (and males tend to rape more), average IQ probably in the 130s (and high-IQ people are less likely to have any sex, let alone non-consensual one), etc. OTOH, given that there are effects with different signs, I’m not sure what the sign of the total effect would be.
Nothing brilliant: given no reason to systematically shift my local expectation in one direction or another, my local expectation defaults to my global expectation.
Would you expect something different?
For me, it’s more like “the overall evidence probably strongly points some way, but I can’t be bothered to do the maths and figure out which way it points”.
Yes, thank you.
I assume you are most likely not one of those men based on the assumption that they are only somewhere around 6% of the population. I’d put the odds slightly higher since you are interested enough in the topic to write in the comments and initially said something dismissive, but not a whole lot higher. Most likely you’re a nice and respectful guy in control of your impulses in as much as the rest of the population, and I prefer to give people the benefit of the doubt.
For certain people, being in control of one’s impulses may be easier in writing than in meatspace.