Nothing brilliant: given no reason to systematically shift my local expectation in one direction or another, my local expectation defaults to my global expectation.
For me, it’s more like “the overall evidence probably strongly points some way, but I can’t be bothered to do the maths and figure out which way it points”.
Nothing brilliant: given no reason to systematically shift my local expectation in one direction or another, my local expectation defaults to my global expectation.
Would you expect something different?
For me, it’s more like “the overall evidence probably strongly points some way, but I can’t be bothered to do the maths and figure out which way it points”.