It’s more intuitive to use odds. Prior odds are 1:99, likelihood ratio (strength of evidence) given by a positive test is 95:5, so posterior odds are (1:99)*(95:5)=19:99, or probability of 19⁄118 (about 16%).
It’s more intuitive to use odds. Prior odds are 1:99, likelihood ratio (strength of evidence) given by a positive test is 95:5, so posterior odds are (1:99)*(95:5)=19:99, or probability of 19⁄118 (about 16%).