The part of Ajeya’s comment that stood out to me was this:
On a meta level I now defer heavily to Ryan and people in his reference class (METR and Redwood engineers) on AI timelines, because they have a similarly deep understanding of the conceptual arguments I consider most important while having much more hands-on experience with the frontier of useful AI capabilities (I still don’t use AI systems regularly in my work).
The part of Ajeya’s comment that stood out to me was this:
I’d also look at Eli Lifland’s forecasts as well: