Yep, I still endorse this post. I remember it fondly because it was really fun to write and read. I still marvel at how nicely the prediction worked out for me (predicting correctly before seeing the data that power/weight ratio was the key metric for forecasting when planes would be invented). My main regret is that I fell for the pendulum rocket fallacy and so picked an example that inadvertently contradicted, rather than illustrated, the point I wanted to make! I still think the point overall is solid but I do actually think this embarrassment made me take somewhat more seriously the “we are missing important insights” hypothesis. Sometimes you don’t know what you don’t know.
I still see lots of people making claims about the efficiency and mysteriousness of the brain to justify longer timelines. Frustratingly I usually can’t tell from their offhand remarks whether they are using the bogus arguments I criticize in this post, or whether they have something more sophisticated and legit in mind. I’d have to interrogate them further, and probably get them to read this post, to find out, and in conversation there usually isn’t time or energy to do that.
Update: Unfortunately, three years later, it seems like plenty of people are still making the same old bogus arguments. Oh well. This is unsurprising. I’m still proud of this post & link to it occasionally when I remember to.
Quick self-review:
Yep, I still endorse this post. I remember it fondly because it was really fun to write and read. I still marvel at how nicely the prediction worked out for me (predicting correctly before seeing the data that power/weight ratio was the key metric for forecasting when planes would be invented). My main regret is that I fell for the pendulum rocket fallacy and so picked an example that inadvertently contradicted, rather than illustrated, the point I wanted to make! I still think the point overall is solid but I do actually think this embarrassment made me take somewhat more seriously the “we are missing important insights” hypothesis. Sometimes you don’t know what you don’t know.
I still see lots of people making claims about the efficiency and mysteriousness of the brain to justify longer timelines. Frustratingly I usually can’t tell from their offhand remarks whether they are using the bogus arguments I criticize in this post, or whether they have something more sophisticated and legit in mind. I’d have to interrogate them further, and probably get them to read this post, to find out, and in conversation there usually isn’t time or energy to do that.
Update: Unfortunately, three years later, it seems like plenty of people are still making the same old bogus arguments. Oh well. This is unsurprising. I’m still proud of this post & link to it occasionally when I remember to.