Sorry for not making this clear—I agree the probability distribution should be stretched out. I think Longs’ argument is bogus, in the sense of being basically zero evidence for its conclusion as currently stated—but the conclusion may still be right, because there are more fleshed-out arguments one could make that are much better. For example, as you point out, I didn’t really investigate the issue of whether or not Shorty properly identified the key variables in the case of TAI. I think a really good way to critique Shorty is to argue that those aren’t the key variables, or at least that they probably aren’t. As it happens, I do think those are probably the key variables, but I haven’t argued for that yet, and I am still rather uncertain.
(I think Long’s argument that those aren’t the key variables is bad though. It’s too easy to point to things we currently don’t understand; see e.g. how many things we didn’t understand about birds or flight in 1900! Better would be to have an alternative theory of what the key variables are, or a more direct rebuttal of Shorty’s theory of key variables by showing that it makes some incorrect prediction or something.)
Sorry for not making this clear—I agree the probability distribution should be stretched out. I think Longs’ argument is bogus, in the sense of being basically zero evidence for its conclusion as currently stated—but the conclusion may still be right, because there are more fleshed-out arguments one could make that are much better. For example, as you point out, I didn’t really investigate the issue of whether or not Shorty properly identified the key variables in the case of TAI. I think a really good way to critique Shorty is to argue that those aren’t the key variables, or at least that they probably aren’t. As it happens, I do think those are probably the key variables, but I haven’t argued for that yet, and I am still rather uncertain.
(I think Long’s argument that those aren’t the key variables is bad though. It’s too easy to point to things we currently don’t understand; see e.g. how many things we didn’t understand about birds or flight in 1900! Better would be to have an alternative theory of what the key variables are, or a more direct rebuttal of Shorty’s theory of key variables by showing that it makes some incorrect prediction or something.)