Nothing in this post directly contradicts anything in Ajeya’s report. The conflict, insofar as there is any, is in that Part 3 I mentioned, where I sketch an argument for long timelines based on data-efficiency. That argument sketch was inspired by what Ajeya said; it’s what my model of her (and of you) would say. Indeed it’s what you are saying now (e.g. you are saying the scaling laws tell us how data-efficient our models will be once they are bigger, and it’s still not data-efficient enough to be transformative, according to you.) I think. So, the only conflict is external to this post I guess: I think this is a decent argument but I’m not yet fully convinced, whereas (I think) you and Ajeya think it or something like it is a more convincing argument. I intend to sleep on it and get back to you tomorrow with a more considered response.
Nothing in this post directly contradicts anything in Ajeya’s report. The conflict, insofar as there is any, is in that Part 3 I mentioned, where I sketch an argument for long timelines based on data-efficiency. That argument sketch was inspired by what Ajeya said; it’s what my model of her (and of you) would say. Indeed it’s what you are saying now (e.g. you are saying the scaling laws tell us how data-efficient our models will be once they are bigger, and it’s still not data-efficient enough to be transformative, according to you.) I think. So, the only conflict is external to this post I guess: I think this is a decent argument but I’m not yet fully convinced, whereas (I think) you and Ajeya think it or something like it is a more convincing argument. I intend to sleep on it and get back to you tomorrow with a more considered response.