UPDATE: I just reread Ajeya’s report and actually her version of the human lifetime anchor is shifted +3 OOMs because she’s trying to account for how humans have priors, special sauce, etc. in them given by evolution. So… I’m pretty perplexed. Even after shifting the anchor +3 OOMs to account for special sauce etc. she still assigns only 5% weight to it! Note that if you just did the naive thing, which is to look at the 41-OOM cost of recapitulating evolution as a loose upper bound, and take (say) 85% of your credence and divide it evenly between all the orders of magnitude less than that but more than where we are now… you’d get something like 5% per OOM, which would come out to 25% or so for the human lifetime anchor!
UPDATE: I just reread Ajeya’s report and actually her version of the human lifetime anchor is shifted +3 OOMs because she’s trying to account for how humans have priors, special sauce, etc. in them given by evolution. So… I’m pretty perplexed. Even after shifting the anchor +3 OOMs to account for special sauce etc. she still assigns only 5% weight to it! Note that if you just did the naive thing, which is to look at the 41-OOM cost of recapitulating evolution as a loose upper bound, and take (say) 85% of your credence and divide it evenly between all the orders of magnitude less than that but more than where we are now… you’d get something like 5% per OOM, which would come out to 25% or so for the human lifetime anchor!