Interesting idea. If this was indeed a scenario that presented itself often in the Pleistocene, then we should expect individuals to signal that they do not do well under pressure (and in order to enable self-deception, actually believe that they will not do well), but consistently perform better under pressure than they expect to. There are cultural desires that shape our avowed expectations under many scenarios, so perhaps the best empirical test of this would be under a novel game situation.
If true, perhaps this could explain the pervasiveness of self-deprecating behavior?
But Nick, wouldn’t it be a mistake for me to prefer a person who exceeded my low expectations, over a person who met my high expectations, if their performance levels were equal? Wouldn’t I be more rational to update my opinion of the low-expectations person in the direction of higher ability, but not as high as the person who met my expectations? Since it’s possible the low-expectations person did as well as he did just due to luck, I should not update my opinion all the way to his recent performance level. And so he should still be lower than the other guy.
Which means, that to the extent that Nick’s observation is correct, we have another puzzle to explain.
Interesting idea. If this was indeed a scenario that presented itself often in the Pleistocene, then we should expect individuals to signal that they do not do well under pressure (and in order to enable self-deception, actually believe that they will not do well), but consistently perform better under pressure than they expect to. There are cultural desires that shape our avowed expectations under many scenarios, so perhaps the best empirical test of this would be under a novel game situation.
If true, perhaps this could explain the pervasiveness of self-deprecating behavior?
Also, creating low expectations and exceeding them very likely creates a better impression than the same level of performance accurately expected.
But Nick, wouldn’t it be a mistake for me to prefer a person who exceeded my low expectations, over a person who met my high expectations, if their performance levels were equal? Wouldn’t I be more rational to update my opinion of the low-expectations person in the direction of higher ability, but not as high as the person who met my expectations? Since it’s possible the low-expectations person did as well as he did just due to luck, I should not update my opinion all the way to his recent performance level. And so he should still be lower than the other guy.
Which means, that to the extent that Nick’s observation is correct, we have another puzzle to explain.