I could see an argument that quantum randomness does not have a large effect for the particular election in 2028, as long as no one is actively trying to make this prediction wrong. I have no idea about US politics right now, so I have no clue if it is already foreseeable that margins are going to be large.
At least the election in 2000 would fail this test, though (As discussed on Metaculus). Weather alone could have turned things around on election day would be my guess. First past the post voting makes close margins more likely, and the electoral college makes that different weather in just 1 large swing state can turn things around.
One thing I find interesting how the US election is probably a big amplifier of the relevance of quantum randomness in a lot of other areas. Makes me wonder if there are other identifiable sources of chaos amplification that I don’t have on my radar yet. Perhaps the spread of memes? Especially since politics is operating so much on level 4. I would guess there would be memes that once around would not be as easily be affected through equal and opposite effects.
I could see an argument that quantum randomness does not have a large effect for the particular election in 2028, as long as no one is actively trying to make this prediction wrong. I have no idea about US politics right now, so I have no clue if it is already foreseeable that margins are going to be large.
At least the election in 2000 would fail this test, though (As discussed on Metaculus). Weather alone could have turned things around on election day would be my guess. First past the post voting makes close margins more likely, and the electoral college makes that different weather in just 1 large swing state can turn things around.
One thing I find interesting how the US election is probably a big amplifier of the relevance of quantum randomness in a lot of other areas. Makes me wonder if there are other identifiable sources of chaos amplification that I don’t have on my radar yet. Perhaps the spread of memes? Especially since politics is operating so much on level 4. I would guess there would be memes that once around would not be as easily be affected through equal and opposite effects.