I think “one of the potential candidates might quantum-randomly die in the timeframe” is a pretty strong argument that there’s at least ~0.1% quantum uncertainty.
ETA: For some stats on this, see this table from the government of Canada. Annual death rate ranges from 0.1% for 35-year olds, up to 0.5% for 55-year-olds, and 3% for 75-year-olds. Multiply those by 4 to get the death rate in the relevant window. Obviously only a small fraction of those deaths will be quantum-randomness-influenced. Also note the relatively high rate of presidential assassinations -- 4 of 45(!) presidents were asssassinated in office(although I assume the “true” probability is lower now)
I don’t think most people die for quantum-randomness reasons. I expect very little probability of someone dying is related to quantum randomness (though my guess is someone might disagree, but then we are just kind of back to the OP question about how much quantum randomness influences macro-level events).
I don’t think most people die for quantum-randomness reasons
You don’t think so? I think this is clearly the case over someone’s entire life. Starting to condition on a 4-year timescale, I think accidental deaths, assassinations, and viral infections are certainly quantum-randomness-affected at greater than 0.1% probability. Maybe also things like cancer and its progression(dependent on mutations which may or may not happen on a short time scale?) but I don’t really know much about it.
The base rate is too low for all but the oldest segment of the population. A quick google search says roughly 0.8% death rate of 64-75 year olds over four years [EDIT: see correction downthread], and most of that will be from health problems which show signs far in advance. For younger people, the death rate itself would be below 0.1%.
Also, how are you geting 0.8%? This website says that the mortality rate of 65-75 year olds is 2%. So over 4 years that should be 8%, which I think makes it much more plausible that quantum death probability is 0.1%(although clearly 8% isn’t the real probability, any presidential candidate is probably way less likely to die than the background population)
Yyyyeah, I’m not totally sure if you get 0.1% just from people dying, hence the ~. But I think it’s at least within a factor of 10, which makes me think the total quantum randomness factor is at least 0.1%. And to defend the “people dying” factor, (a) many of the candidates are in fact pretty old these days (b) presidents have a relatively high rate of being assassinated − 4 of 45(!), although I assume the actual probability is lower now than the historical average (c) randomness within the 4-year window could affect how quickly a pre-existing health problem progresses, although this might result in them dropping out early/not rather than actually dying.
For younger people(in presidential-candidate age ranges) the annual death rate ranges from 0.15% to 0.5%, see here (So the 4-year death rate ranges from 0.6% to 2%)
How about cancer deaths? From the point of view of 2012, was Beau Biden’s death in 2015 after diagnosis in 2013 due to quantum randomness? That sure had a big effect on the Democratic primary, if not the general election.
I think “one of the potential candidates might quantum-randomly die in the timeframe” is a pretty strong argument that there’s at least ~0.1% quantum uncertainty.
ETA: For some stats on this, see this table from the government of Canada. Annual death rate ranges from 0.1% for 35-year olds, up to 0.5% for 55-year-olds, and 3% for 75-year-olds. Multiply those by 4 to get the death rate in the relevant window. Obviously only a small fraction of those deaths will be quantum-randomness-influenced. Also note the relatively high rate of presidential assassinations -- 4 of 45(!) presidents were asssassinated in office(although I assume the “true” probability is lower now)
I don’t think most people die for quantum-randomness reasons. I expect very little probability of someone dying is related to quantum randomness (though my guess is someone might disagree, but then we are just kind of back to the OP question about how much quantum randomness influences macro-level events).
You don’t think so? I think this is clearly the case over someone’s entire life. Starting to condition on a 4-year timescale, I think accidental deaths, assassinations, and viral infections are certainly quantum-randomness-affected at greater than 0.1% probability. Maybe also things like cancer and its progression(dependent on mutations which may or may not happen on a short time scale?) but I don’t really know much about it.
The base rate is too low for all but the oldest segment of the population.
A quick google search says roughly 0.8% death rate of 64-75 year olds over four years[EDIT: see correction downthread], and most of that will be from health problems which show signs far in advance. For younger people, the death rate itself would be below 0.1%.Also, how are you geting 0.8%? This website says that the mortality rate of 65-75 year olds is 2%. So over 4 years that should be 8%, which I think makes it much more plausible that quantum death probability is 0.1%(although clearly 8% isn’t the real probability, any presidential candidate is probably way less likely to die than the background population)
You’re right, I misread. I retract that part of my claim.
Yyyyeah, I’m not totally sure if you get 0.1% just from people dying, hence the ~. But I think it’s at least within a factor of 10, which makes me think the total quantum randomness factor is at least 0.1%. And to defend the “people dying” factor, (a) many of the candidates are in fact pretty old these days (b) presidents have a relatively high rate of being assassinated − 4 of 45(!), although I assume the actual probability is lower now than the historical average (c) randomness within the 4-year window could affect how quickly a pre-existing health problem progresses, although this might result in them dropping out early/not rather than actually dying.
For younger people(in presidential-candidate age ranges) the annual death rate ranges from 0.15% to 0.5%, see here (So the 4-year death rate ranges from 0.6% to 2%)
How about cancer deaths? From the point of view of 2012, was Beau Biden’s death in 2015 after diagnosis in 2013 due to quantum randomness? That sure had a big effect on the Democratic primary, if not the general election.