Yyyyeah, I’m not totally sure if you get 0.1% just from people dying, hence the ~. But I think it’s at least within a factor of 10, which makes me think the total quantum randomness factor is at least 0.1%. And to defend the “people dying” factor, (a) many of the candidates are in fact pretty old these days (b) presidents have a relatively high rate of being assassinated − 4 of 45(!), although I assume the actual probability is lower now than the historical average (c) randomness within the 4-year window could affect how quickly a pre-existing health problem progresses, although this might result in them dropping out early/not rather than actually dying.
Yyyyeah, I’m not totally sure if you get 0.1% just from people dying, hence the ~. But I think it’s at least within a factor of 10, which makes me think the total quantum randomness factor is at least 0.1%. And to defend the “people dying” factor, (a) many of the candidates are in fact pretty old these days (b) presidents have a relatively high rate of being assassinated − 4 of 45(!), although I assume the actual probability is lower now than the historical average (c) randomness within the 4-year window could affect how quickly a pre-existing health problem progresses, although this might result in them dropping out early/not rather than actually dying.