in Part I., it can be the case that human values are actually complex combination of easy to measure goals + complex world models, so the structure of the proxies will be able to represent what we really care about. (I don’t know. Also the result can still stop represent our values with further scaling and evolution.)
in Part II., it can be the case that influence-seeking patterns are more computationally costly than straightforward patterns, and they can be in part suppressed by optimising for processing costs, bounded-rationality style. To some extend, influence-seeking patterns attempting to grow and control the whole system seems to me to be something happening also within our own minds. I would guess some combinational of immune system + metacognition + bounded rationality + stabilisation by complexity is stabilising many human minds. (I don’t know if anything of that can scale arbitrarily.)
Reasons for some careful optimism
in Part I., it can be the case that human values are actually complex combination of easy to measure goals + complex world models, so the structure of the proxies will be able to represent what we really care about. (I don’t know. Also the result can still stop represent our values with further scaling and evolution.)
in Part II., it can be the case that influence-seeking patterns are more computationally costly than straightforward patterns, and they can be in part suppressed by optimising for processing costs, bounded-rationality style. To some extend, influence-seeking patterns attempting to grow and control the whole system seems to me to be something happening also within our own minds. I would guess some combinational of immune system + metacognition + bounded rationality + stabilisation by complexity is stabilising many human minds. (I don’t know if anything of that can scale arbitrarily.)