So after rereading, it seems like what you’re saying is—Have the AGI do the resolutions? Which means people predicting what an AGIs probabilities will be on hard questions (assuming the AGI isn’t omniscient, it will still be able to only give probabilities on these items and not certainties). This makes a bit more sense in that instead of a resolution date it gives a resolution event. However you lose the ability to weight people’s answers by their accuracy since nothing ever gets resolved till the AGI comes, and it seems to fall prey to the “predicting what someone smarter than me would do” problem.
I’m saying that the AGI would be helpful to do the resolutions; any world post-AGI could be significantly better at answering such questions. I’m not sure if it’s a useful distinction though between “The AGI evaluates the questions” and “An evaluation group uses the AGI to evaluate the questions.”
You’re right it has the issue of “predicting what someone smarter than me would do.” Do you know of much other literature on that one issue? I’m not sure how much of an issue to expect it to be.
So after rereading, it seems like what you’re saying is—Have the AGI do the resolutions? Which means people predicting what an AGIs probabilities will be on hard questions (assuming the AGI isn’t omniscient, it will still be able to only give probabilities on these items and not certainties). This makes a bit more sense in that instead of a resolution date it gives a resolution event. However you lose the ability to weight people’s answers by their accuracy since nothing ever gets resolved till the AGI comes, and it seems to fall prey to the “predicting what someone smarter than me would do” problem.
I’m saying that the AGI would be helpful to do the resolutions; any world post-AGI could be significantly better at answering such questions. I’m not sure if it’s a useful distinction though between “The AGI evaluates the questions” and “An evaluation group uses the AGI to evaluate the questions.”
You’re right it has the issue of “predicting what someone smarter than me would do.” Do you know of much other literature on that one issue? I’m not sure how much of an issue to expect it to be.