I’m having trouble seeing the benefit of something like this over simply a regular prediction market/poll with long time horizons. Any existing prediction market/poll will by definition become a post-AGI prediction market/poll once AGI is developed. This of course won’t be able to ask questions dependent on AGI being developed (without explicitly stating those in the question), but many of the questions in your examples don’t seem to be those sorts of dependent questions.
I’m also having trouble seeing how you would resolve some of the questions you asked in a traditional prediction market/poll system. It seems more at that point like just asking an AGI what their probabilties are on specific things, without being able to measure their accuracy. It seems like having a list of questions that it would be useful to ask an AGI is a worthwhile goal in itself, but it seems like you have something else in mind that I’m not quite getting.
So after rereading, it seems like what you’re saying is—Have the AGI do the resolutions? Which means people predicting what an AGIs probabilities will be on hard questions (assuming the AGI isn’t omniscient, it will still be able to only give probabilities on these items and not certainties). This makes a bit more sense in that instead of a resolution date it gives a resolution event. However you lose the ability to weight people’s answers by their accuracy since nothing ever gets resolved till the AGI comes, and it seems to fall prey to the “predicting what someone smarter than me would do” problem.
I’m saying that the AGI would be helpful to do the resolutions; any world post-AGI could be significantly better at answering such questions. I’m not sure if it’s a useful distinction though between “The AGI evaluates the questions” and “An evaluation group uses the AGI to evaluate the questions.”
You’re right it has the issue of “predicting what someone smarter than me would do.” Do you know of much other literature on that one issue? I’m not sure how much of an issue to expect it to be.
I think I’m missing a key inferential step here.
I’m having trouble seeing the benefit of something like this over simply a regular prediction market/poll with long time horizons. Any existing prediction market/poll will by definition become a post-AGI prediction market/poll once AGI is developed. This of course won’t be able to ask questions dependent on AGI being developed (without explicitly stating those in the question), but many of the questions in your examples don’t seem to be those sorts of dependent questions.
I’m also having trouble seeing how you would resolve some of the questions you asked in a traditional prediction market/poll system. It seems more at that point like just asking an AGI what their probabilties are on specific things, without being able to measure their accuracy. It seems like having a list of questions that it would be useful to ask an AGI is a worthwhile goal in itself, but it seems like you have something else in mind that I’m not quite getting.
So after rereading, it seems like what you’re saying is—Have the AGI do the resolutions? Which means people predicting what an AGIs probabilities will be on hard questions (assuming the AGI isn’t omniscient, it will still be able to only give probabilities on these items and not certainties). This makes a bit more sense in that instead of a resolution date it gives a resolution event. However you lose the ability to weight people’s answers by their accuracy since nothing ever gets resolved till the AGI comes, and it seems to fall prey to the “predicting what someone smarter than me would do” problem.
I’m saying that the AGI would be helpful to do the resolutions; any world post-AGI could be significantly better at answering such questions. I’m not sure if it’s a useful distinction though between “The AGI evaluates the questions” and “An evaluation group uses the AGI to evaluate the questions.”
You’re right it has the issue of “predicting what someone smarter than me would do.” Do you know of much other literature on that one issue? I’m not sure how much of an issue to expect it to be.