I looked into this a little more, and it looks like those who are strongly tied to the LW community are less likely to give high answers to p(cryonics) (p>50%), but not any more or less likely to give low answers (p<10%). That reduction in high answers could be a sign of greater rationality—less affect heuristic driven irrational exuberance about the prospects for cryonics—or just more knowledge about the topic. But I’m surprised that there’s no change in the frequency of low answers.
There is a similar pattern in the relationship between cryonics status and p(cryonics). Those who are signed up for cryonics don’t give a higher p(cryonics) on average than those who are not signed up, but they are less likely to give a probability under 10%. The group with the highest average p(cryonics) is those who aren’t signed up but are considering it, and that’s the group that’s most likely to give a probability over 50%.
Here are the results for p(cryonics) broken down by cryonics status, showing what percent of each group gave p(cryonics)<.1, what percent gave p(cryonics)>.5, and what the average p(cryonics) is for each group. (I’m expressing p(cryonics) here as probabilities from 0-1 because I think it’s easier to follow that way, since I’m giving the percent of people in each group.)
Never thought about it / don’t understand (n=26): 58% give p<.1, 8% give p>.5, mean p=.17 No, and not planning to (n=289): 60% give p<.1, 6% give p>.5, mean p=.14 No, but considering it (n=444): 38% give p < .1, 18% give p>.5, mean p=.27 Yes—signed up or just finishing up paperwork (n=36): 39% give p<.1, 8% give p>.5, mean p=.21 Overall: 47% give p<.1, 13% give p>.5, mean p=.22
The existential risk questions are a confounding factor here—if you think p(cryonics works) 80%, but p(xrisk ends civilization) 50%, that pulls down your p(successful revival) considerably.
I wondered about that, but p(cryonics) and p(xrisk) are actually uncorrelated, and the pattern of results for p(cryonics) remains the same when controlling statistically for p(xrisk).
I looked into this a little more, and it looks like those who are strongly tied to the LW community are less likely to give high answers to p(cryonics) (p>50%), but not any more or less likely to give low answers (p<10%). That reduction in high answers could be a sign of greater rationality—less affect heuristic driven irrational exuberance about the prospects for cryonics—or just more knowledge about the topic. But I’m surprised that there’s no change in the frequency of low answers.
There is a similar pattern in the relationship between cryonics status and p(cryonics). Those who are signed up for cryonics don’t give a higher p(cryonics) on average than those who are not signed up, but they are less likely to give a probability under 10%. The group with the highest average p(cryonics) is those who aren’t signed up but are considering it, and that’s the group that’s most likely to give a probability over 50%.
Here are the results for p(cryonics) broken down by cryonics status, showing what percent of each group gave p(cryonics)<.1, what percent gave p(cryonics)>.5, and what the average p(cryonics) is for each group. (I’m expressing p(cryonics) here as probabilities from 0-1 because I think it’s easier to follow that way, since I’m giving the percent of people in each group.)
Never thought about it / don’t understand (n=26): 58% give p<.1, 8% give p>.5, mean p=.17
No, and not planning to (n=289): 60% give p<.1, 6% give p>.5, mean p=.14
No, but considering it (n=444): 38% give p < .1, 18% give p>.5, mean p=.27
Yes—signed up or just finishing up paperwork (n=36): 39% give p<.1, 8% give p>.5, mean p=.21
Overall: 47% give p<.1, 13% give p>.5, mean p=.22
The existential risk questions are a confounding factor here—if you think p(cryonics works) 80%, but p(xrisk ends civilization) 50%, that pulls down your p(successful revival) considerably.
I wondered about that, but p(cryonics) and p(xrisk) are actually uncorrelated, and the pattern of results for p(cryonics) remains the same when controlling statistically for p(xrisk).