In my model, the AGI threshold is a phase change. Before that point, AI improves at human research speed; after that point it improves much faster (even as early AGI is just training skills and not doing AI research). Before AGI threshold, the impact on the world is limited to what sub-AGI AI can do, which depends on how much time is available before AGI for humans to specialize AI to particular applications. So with short AGI threshold timelines, there isn’t enough time for humans to make AI very impactful, but after AGI threshold is crossed, AI advancement accelerates much more than before that point. And possibly there is not enough time post-AGI to leave much of an economic impact either, before it gets into post-singularity territory (nanotech and massive compute; depending on how AGIs navigate transitive alignment, possibly still no superintelligence).
I think this doesn’t fit into the takeoff speed dichotomy, because in this view the speed of the post-AGI phase isn’t observable during the pre-AGI phase.
In my model, the AGI threshold is a phase change. Before that point, AI improves at human research speed; after that point it improves much faster (even as early AGI is just training skills and not doing AI research). Before AGI threshold, the impact on the world is limited to what sub-AGI AI can do, which depends on how much time is available before AGI for humans to specialize AI to particular applications. So with short AGI threshold timelines, there isn’t enough time for humans to make AI very impactful, but after AGI threshold is crossed, AI advancement accelerates much more than before that point. And possibly there is not enough time post-AGI to leave much of an economic impact either, before it gets into post-singularity territory (nanotech and massive compute; depending on how AGIs navigate transitive alignment, possibly still no superintelligence).
I think this doesn’t fit into the takeoff speed dichotomy, because in this view the speed of the post-AGI phase isn’t observable during the pre-AGI phase.