I’ve noticed something that may explain some of the confusion. You say above:
...halvers don’t believe that you can answer: “If Sleeping Beauty is awake, what are the chance that the coin came up heads?” without de-indexicalising the situation first.
But in the Sleeping Beauty problem as usually specified, the question is what probability Beauty should assign to Heads, not what some external observer should think she should be doing. Beauty is in no doubt about who she is (eg, she’s the person who just stubbed her toe on this bedpost here) even though she doesn’t know what day of the week it is.
Well, there’s two kinds of probability that we could calculate: we could roughly call them subjective probability (which gives an answer of 1⁄3) or objective probability (which gives an answer of 1⁄2).
The confusing part is that you can ask an “objective” observer about the subjective probability relative to beauty and they’d say 1⁄3 or you can ask a “subjective” observer like beauty about the objective probability and they’d say 1⁄2.
This is further obscured by subjective probability already having a definition, so I really need to find a different name.
Anyway, I hope that most of the questions will be cleared up when I write up a more comprehensive post dealing the various issues that have already been raised, though I’ll probably wait at least a week (quite possibly two) because I think people need time to digest all the conversation that has already occurred.
I’ve noticed something that may explain some of the confusion. You say above:
...halvers don’t believe that you can answer: “If Sleeping Beauty is awake, what are the chance that the coin came up heads?” without de-indexicalising the situation first.
But in the Sleeping Beauty problem as usually specified, the question is what probability Beauty should assign to Heads, not what some external observer should think she should be doing. Beauty is in no doubt about who she is (eg, she’s the person who just stubbed her toe on this bedpost here) even though she doesn’t know what day of the week it is.
Speaking very roughly:
Well, there’s two kinds of probability that we could calculate: we could roughly call them subjective probability (which gives an answer of 1⁄3) or objective probability (which gives an answer of 1⁄2).
The confusing part is that you can ask an “objective” observer about the subjective probability relative to beauty and they’d say 1⁄3 or you can ask a “subjective” observer like beauty about the objective probability and they’d say 1⁄2.
This is further obscured by subjective probability already having a definition, so I really need to find a different name.
Anyway, I hope that most of the questions will be cleared up when I write up a more comprehensive post dealing the various issues that have already been raised, though I’ll probably wait at least a week (quite possibly two) because I think people need time to digest all the conversation that has already occurred.