Well, there’s two kinds of probability that we could calculate: we could roughly call them subjective probability (which gives an answer of 1⁄3) or objective probability (which gives an answer of 1⁄2).
The confusing part is that you can ask an “objective” observer about the subjective probability relative to beauty and they’d say 1⁄3 or you can ask a “subjective” observer like beauty about the objective probability and they’d say 1⁄2.
This is further obscured by subjective probability already having a definition, so I really need to find a different name.
Anyway, I hope that most of the questions will be cleared up when I write up a more comprehensive post dealing the various issues that have already been raised, though I’ll probably wait at least a week (quite possibly two) because I think people need time to digest all the conversation that has already occurred.
Speaking very roughly:
Well, there’s two kinds of probability that we could calculate: we could roughly call them subjective probability (which gives an answer of 1⁄3) or objective probability (which gives an answer of 1⁄2).
The confusing part is that you can ask an “objective” observer about the subjective probability relative to beauty and they’d say 1⁄3 or you can ask a “subjective” observer like beauty about the objective probability and they’d say 1⁄2.
This is further obscured by subjective probability already having a definition, so I really need to find a different name.
Anyway, I hope that most of the questions will be cleared up when I write up a more comprehensive post dealing the various issues that have already been raised, though I’ll probably wait at least a week (quite possibly two) because I think people need time to digest all the conversation that has already occurred.