Secondly though, this post brushes on the topic of intuition as a useful tool, something I think far too many Logic-Based types throw out without considering the practicality of. It’s better not to think of it as being an substitute for logical thinking, but rather as a quick and dirty backup, for when you don’t have all the information.
Intuition can occur in up to two seconds, operates almost completely below conscious awareness, and begins effecting your body immediately. Here are some excerpts from Blink, a book by Malcolm Gladwell, in which he researches how intuition works, what abilities and drawbacks it has, and what biases can effect it’s overall usefulness.
In front of you are four decks of cards, two of them red and the other two blue. Each card in those four decks either wins you a sum of money or costs you some money, and your job is to turn over cards from any the decks, one at a time, in such a way that maximizes your winnings.*
Ah, a perfect opportunity to be a Logical Thinker, using careful observation and reasoning to find the ideal pattern. What path does intuition take though?
What you don’t know at the beginning however, is that the red decks are a minefield. The rewards are high, but when you lose on the red cards, you lose a lot. Actually, you can win only by taking cards from the blue decks, which offer a nice steady diet of $50 payouts and modest penalties. The question is how long will it take you to figure this out? After about fifty cards or so, people start to develop a hunch about what’s going on. We don’t know why we prefer the blue decks, but we’re pretty sure at that point that they are a better bet. After turning about eighty cards, most of us have figured out the game and can explain exactly why the first two decks are a bad idea.
This is all standard enough, but what is more impressive is the fact that people started generating stress responses to the red decks by the tenth card.
That’s right, palms began to sweat in reaction to the red decks almost immediately, naturally pushing people towards the blue decks before they could even understand why, or even recognize what they were doing.
In those moments, our brain uses two very different strategies to make sense of the situation. The first is the one we’re most familiar with. It’s the conscious strategy. We think about what we’ve learned, and eventually we come up with an answer. This strategy is logical and definitive. But it takes us eighty cards to get there. It’s slow, and it needs a lot of information. There’s a second strategy, though. It operates a lot more quickly. It starts to kick in after ten cards, and it’s really smart, because it picks up the problem with the red decks almost immediately.
There are better examples of applied Intuition in Blink, but I’ve purposefully only used one of the earlier examples in the Amazon Sampler to respect the book. I’d recommend reading the whole thing though, especially if you’re interested in understanding what it does while you’re thinking things through.
The problem with the stress response is that it’s likely based only on the potential for loss rather than any real intuitive calculation. Suppose blue was (+10 / −5) at 50% each, and red was (+300 / −250 ) with 50% each. Red is right but I would very much expect a stress reaction on red from ordinary people, more so for cards with a wider variety of possible outcomes!
How does all of this interact with the fact that almost everyone will continue to take some number of cards from all decks the entire time, rather than going for exploration early and then exploitation late?
Firstly, this post is awesome.
Secondly though, this post brushes on the topic of intuition as a useful tool, something I think far too many Logic-Based types throw out without considering the practicality of. It’s better not to think of it as being an substitute for logical thinking, but rather as a quick and dirty backup, for when you don’t have all the information.
Intuition can occur in up to two seconds, operates almost completely below conscious awareness, and begins effecting your body immediately. Here are some excerpts from Blink, a book by Malcolm Gladwell, in which he researches how intuition works, what abilities and drawbacks it has, and what biases can effect it’s overall usefulness.
Ah, a perfect opportunity to be a Logical Thinker, using careful observation and reasoning to find the ideal pattern. What path does intuition take though?
This is all standard enough, but what is more impressive is the fact that people started generating stress responses to the red decks by the tenth card.
That’s right, palms began to sweat in reaction to the red decks almost immediately, naturally pushing people towards the blue decks before they could even understand why, or even recognize what they were doing.
There are better examples of applied Intuition in Blink, but I’ve purposefully only used one of the earlier examples in the Amazon Sampler to respect the book. I’d recommend reading the whole thing though, especially if you’re interested in understanding what it does while you’re thinking things through.
The problem with the stress response is that it’s likely based only on the potential for loss rather than any real intuitive calculation. Suppose blue was (+10 / −5) at 50% each, and red was (+300 / −250 ) with 50% each. Red is right but I would very much expect a stress reaction on red from ordinary people, more so for cards with a wider variety of possible outcomes!
How does all of this interact with the fact that almost everyone will continue to take some number of cards from all decks the entire time, rather than going for exploration early and then exploitation late?