We often trade to express an opinion on whether a future event will drive value up or down.
You believe that a vaccine will be widely distributed, so you try investing in travel stocks. You believe emissions regulation is coming, so you try shorting auto companies.
But these trades don’t provide direct exposure to the event. There’s a lot of noise that gets in the way. Kalshi enables you to isolate trading on the event itself.
Counterpoint:
This makes me pessimistic about it, see Prediction Markets Fail To Mooch.