“Deaths lag tests, but are on track to rise proportionally to the rise in tests”.
At the height of the first wave we had 32,787 cases and 2,231 deaths (all 7-day averaged). That’s CFR=0.068
Now (11/19/20) we have 164,996 cases and 1,266 deaths (same averaging). That’s CFR=0.007.
Notice a whole extra “0″ in CFR. Yes, x10 reduction.
Technically—very technically—deaths are indeed rising proportionally. But that’s a technicality that is not relevant to anyone.
MA did strict lockdowns. MA is 3rd in the nation—still—on deaths per million. Maybe we should stop confusing how bitter a pill is with how effective the medicine is?
CFR will inevitably be much higher when you don’t have enough tests available.If memory serves NYC had 40-50% positive tests in the early peak. It is now running at 2.9%.
Deaths are highly correlated with cases 21 days earlier. When cases are rising precipitously, it temporarily decreases the naive CFR. When you take into account that lag, the apparent CFR of documented cases has been a remarkably flat about 2-3% since the summer.
To clarity I meant in the near term rather than comparing to March—if you want to look at the week over week death change this week look at the case over case change 2-3 weeks before that. Didn’t mean death rates didn’t fall since April.
If others think that was unclear I will edit to clarify.
“Deaths lag tests, but are on track to rise proportionally to the rise in tests”.
At the height of the first wave we had 32,787 cases and 2,231 deaths (all 7-day averaged). That’s CFR=0.068
Now (11/19/20) we have 164,996 cases and 1,266 deaths (same averaging). That’s CFR=0.007.
Notice a whole extra “0″ in CFR. Yes, x10 reduction.
Technically—very technically—deaths are indeed rising proportionally. But that’s a technicality that is not relevant to anyone.
MA did strict lockdowns. MA is 3rd in the nation—still—on deaths per million. Maybe we should stop confusing how bitter a pill is with how effective the medicine is?
Alex
CFR will inevitably be much higher when you don’t have enough tests available.If memory serves NYC had 40-50% positive tests in the early peak. It is now running at 2.9%.
Deaths are highly correlated with cases 21 days earlier. When cases are rising precipitously, it temporarily decreases the naive CFR. When you take into account that lag, the apparent CFR of documented cases has been a remarkably flat about 2-3% since the summer.
To clarity I meant in the near term rather than comparing to March—if you want to look at the week over week death change this week look at the case over case change 2-3 weeks before that. Didn’t mean death rates didn’t fall since April.
If others think that was unclear I will edit to clarify.