The universe of people who would have incentive to stage a burglary consists of just about everyone but actual burglars. If the police think that the murder is part of a botched burglary that throws them off the scent of stalkers, sex criminals and people romantically connected to Kercher (along with anyone who lived there or could plausibly have been invited in). Guede, in particular doesn’t appear to be the brightest guy around. It seems more that plausible to me that he thought staging a break-in would help his case. He left physical evidence everywhere so on the fly he came up with the story of an anonymous attacker entering while he was in the bathroom. Then he breaks the window to try and create evidence consistent with his story. He doesn’t flush the toilet for the same reason.
Or maybe the intruder went through Kercher’s belonging looking for incriminating evidence—love letters say—and then made a mess of the roommates room to cover the search up.
Obviously I don’t have any particular reason to privilege those scenarios but they seem to me about as plausible as two students without criminal experience or evident motive committing a rape-murder and not leaving any physical evidence behind. Remember, a rationale for staging a break-in doesn’t have to be flawless. It just has to have enough surface sensibility that it would seem worth doing to Kercher’s murderer/s.
“The universe of people who would have incentive to stage a burglary consists of just about everyone but actual burglars.”
It seems to me there is a distinction between having any incentive at all and having much incentive. To be sure, it’s possible to dream up lots of scenarios where someone who is a stranger or near stranger would stage a burglary, but that’s just not realistic in my opinion.
Anyway, earlier I asked you the following question:
Do you agree that if a break-in was staged, the likely perpetrator (of the staged break-in) was somebody who had lawful access to the residence?
Am I correct in assuming that your answer to this question is “no”?
I’m distinguishing between a break-in and a burglary. Someone could have broken-in and then staged the burglary or someone with lawful access to the house (they lived there or were invited in) could have staged the break-in and burglary. If the break-in was staged the person(s) who did it almost certainly came in through the front door (there is no other way in if they didn’t come in through the door or the broken window!).
t seems to me there is a distinction between having any incentive at all and having much incentive. To be sure, it’s possible to dream up lots of scenarios where someone who is a stranger or near stranger would stage a burglary, but that’s just not realistic in my opinion.
Yeah, I realize that I’m just inventing scenarios. But someone also invented the scenario in which Amanda Knox a twenty-one year old upper middle class college student with no criminal recrord, Raphael Sallecito, and Rudy Guede plan an evening of group sex/ satanic rites without ever communicating by cell phone, coerce Meredith Kercher into participating and when she refuses Guede rapes her and then the men hold her down while Knox stabs her several times and slits her throat. At some point during this period Guede goes to the bathroom and doesn’t flush for no particular reason. Later, Sallecito and Knox return, toss the other roommates clothing around the room, throw a rock through the window. They also manage to remove every significant piece of physical evidence they left in Kercher’s room, bleach and wash every one of their bloody footprints while not touching any of the evidence implicating Guede.
I’m not sure why my first scenario, where Guede fakes the break-in is any less probable than the one above.
“I’m distinguishing between a break-in and a burglary.”
I’m not sure where you are posting from but to me, “burglary” entails breaking in to a place. Are you using the word “burglary” to mean “theft”?
“evening of group sex/ satanic rites without ever communicating by cell phone, coerce Meredith Kercher into participating and when she refuses Guede rapes her and then the men hold her down while Knox stabs her several times and slits her throat.”
FWIW I am skeptical of the prosecution’s scenario. I think they cooked it up to address a big weak point in their case, which is that they don’t have a clear motive. My position is more limited: Simply I’m reasonably confident that Knox and her boyfriend were involved in the murder.
I’m not sure where you are posting from but to me, “burglary” entails breaking in to a place. Are you using the word “burglary” to mean “theft”?
Burglary entails breaking-in + theft. Breaking-in does not entail theft and therefore does not entail burglary. But I might have made that up myself. My point is just that someone could have broken the window and entered the house with intentions other than stealing something and then tossed some things about to make it look like the reason they entered was to steal something.
Technically, burglary also includes breaking in + intent to commit a certain other crimes. For example,if you break into somebody’s residence in order to commit rape (with no intent to steal anything), that would be considered burglary under the traditional definition.
But anyway, putting aside semantic issues, it seems you basically concede the reasonable point that staging a crime scene was likely to have been done by somebody with a significant connection to the victim.
The universe of people who would have incentive to stage a burglary consists of just about everyone but actual burglars. If the police think that the murder is part of a botched burglary that throws them off the scent of stalkers, sex criminals and people romantically connected to Kercher (along with anyone who lived there or could plausibly have been invited in). Guede, in particular doesn’t appear to be the brightest guy around. It seems more that plausible to me that he thought staging a break-in would help his case. He left physical evidence everywhere so on the fly he came up with the story of an anonymous attacker entering while he was in the bathroom. Then he breaks the window to try and create evidence consistent with his story. He doesn’t flush the toilet for the same reason.
Or maybe the intruder went through Kercher’s belonging looking for incriminating evidence—love letters say—and then made a mess of the roommates room to cover the search up.
Obviously I don’t have any particular reason to privilege those scenarios but they seem to me about as plausible as two students without criminal experience or evident motive committing a rape-murder and not leaving any physical evidence behind. Remember, a rationale for staging a break-in doesn’t have to be flawless. It just has to have enough surface sensibility that it would seem worth doing to Kercher’s murderer/s.
“The universe of people who would have incentive to stage a burglary consists of just about everyone but actual burglars.”
It seems to me there is a distinction between having any incentive at all and having much incentive. To be sure, it’s possible to dream up lots of scenarios where someone who is a stranger or near stranger would stage a burglary, but that’s just not realistic in my opinion.
Anyway, earlier I asked you the following question:
Do you agree that if a break-in was staged, the likely perpetrator (of the staged break-in) was somebody who had lawful access to the residence?
Am I correct in assuming that your answer to this question is “no”?
I’m distinguishing between a break-in and a burglary. Someone could have broken-in and then staged the burglary or someone with lawful access to the house (they lived there or were invited in) could have staged the break-in and burglary. If the break-in was staged the person(s) who did it almost certainly came in through the front door (there is no other way in if they didn’t come in through the door or the broken window!).
Yeah, I realize that I’m just inventing scenarios. But someone also invented the scenario in which Amanda Knox a twenty-one year old upper middle class college student with no criminal recrord, Raphael Sallecito, and Rudy Guede plan an evening of group sex/ satanic rites without ever communicating by cell phone, coerce Meredith Kercher into participating and when she refuses Guede rapes her and then the men hold her down while Knox stabs her several times and slits her throat. At some point during this period Guede goes to the bathroom and doesn’t flush for no particular reason. Later, Sallecito and Knox return, toss the other roommates clothing around the room, throw a rock through the window. They also manage to remove every significant piece of physical evidence they left in Kercher’s room, bleach and wash every one of their bloody footprints while not touching any of the evidence implicating Guede.
I’m not sure why my first scenario, where Guede fakes the break-in is any less probable than the one above.
“I’m distinguishing between a break-in and a burglary.”
I’m not sure where you are posting from but to me, “burglary” entails breaking in to a place. Are you using the word “burglary” to mean “theft”?
“evening of group sex/ satanic rites without ever communicating by cell phone, coerce Meredith Kercher into participating and when she refuses Guede rapes her and then the men hold her down while Knox stabs her several times and slits her throat.”
FWIW I am skeptical of the prosecution’s scenario. I think they cooked it up to address a big weak point in their case, which is that they don’t have a clear motive. My position is more limited: Simply I’m reasonably confident that Knox and her boyfriend were involved in the murder.
Burglary entails breaking-in + theft. Breaking-in does not entail theft and therefore does not entail burglary. But I might have made that up myself. My point is just that someone could have broken the window and entered the house with intentions other than stealing something and then tossed some things about to make it look like the reason they entered was to steal something.
“Burglary entails breaking-in + theft.”
Technically, burglary also includes breaking in + intent to commit a certain other crimes. For example,if you break into somebody’s residence in order to commit rape (with no intent to steal anything), that would be considered burglary under the traditional definition.
But anyway, putting aside semantic issues, it seems you basically concede the reasonable point that staging a crime scene was likely to have been done by somebody with a significant connection to the victim.