The percentage of murder cases that involve multiple murderers is relevant to the idea that the evidence against G “brings her probability back down to the prior,” and this percentage is much higher than you think it is (i.e. it is higher than 1% of cases, and this is enough that AK’s probability will definitely not go back to the prior. In fact it seems to be in 10-20% of cases),
That may be true, but many cases of wrongful conviction involve multiple innocent defendants. The Norfolk Four is a perfect example. At one point the police suspected SEVEN men of the attack, even though the coroner said there was only evidence of an attack by one person. In the end, it turned out one person, a known rapist, had committed the crime, but not before four of the innocent served over a decade in prison.
For those who criticize Knox pointing the finger at Lumumba, again, look at the Norfolk Four case where the first suspect, innocent, wrongfully accused a friend, who then wrongfully accused several friends, who then wrongfully accused several of their friends! It might be impossible to understand the mindset that leads to something as wrong as falsely accusing someone else, but it’s happened to a lot of people, and normally they are treated with far less scorn than has been poured on Knox by her critics.
Ok, but given your updated estimates, it is consequently unreasonable to just dismiss psychological and interpreted physical evidence (i.e. bloody footprints, crime scene rearrangement and so on). Whether this is actually so or not, it is very possible that these things could add together to give enough evidence to say that someone is probably guilty; going from a 1% to a 99% chance does not take an extremely large amount of evidence.
And this seems to imply that an hour on the internet does NOT beat a year in the courtroom. To know whether this is true or not you would actually have to know the evidence in more detail. For example it does seem that even in Judge Micheli’s report there is a good deal of detail that has been generally unreported in English.
Ok, but given your updated estimates, it is consequently unreasonable to just dismiss psychological and interpreted physical evidence
I don’t see why this kind of stuff is any more powerful than its counterparts on the other side: K & S’s benign personalities, lack of criminal history, lack of motive, etc.
That may be true. I read (I didn’t pay attention to the source, it could be just a rumor for all I know) that AK sent an email to a friend, shortly after coming to Italy, saying that she had convinced a stranger to have sex with her on a train. If true that would show a dangerous kind of behavior, even though not criminal. Assuming she might be guilty (for the sake of argument) the most likely explanation would be that they were “playing around” and things got out of hand, not that anyone ever was planning to murder someone.
In any case it seems my last point stands: the evidence as it has been presented to us may be unpersuasive but that doesn’t mean that the same kinds of evidence couldn’t become persuasive in principle, and this may be exactly what happened in the trial.
The percentage of murder cases that involve multiple murderers is relevant to the idea that the evidence against G “brings her probability back down to the prior,” and this percentage is much higher than you think it is (i.e. it is higher than 1% of cases, and this is enough that AK’s probability will definitely not go back to the prior. In fact it seems to be in 10-20% of cases),
That may be true, but many cases of wrongful conviction involve multiple innocent defendants. The Norfolk Four is a perfect example. At one point the police suspected SEVEN men of the attack, even though the coroner said there was only evidence of an attack by one person. In the end, it turned out one person, a known rapist, had committed the crime, but not before four of the innocent served over a decade in prison.
For those who criticize Knox pointing the finger at Lumumba, again, look at the Norfolk Four case where the first suspect, innocent, wrongfully accused a friend, who then wrongfully accused several friends, who then wrongfully accused several of their friends! It might be impossible to understand the mindset that leads to something as wrong as falsely accusing someone else, but it’s happened to a lot of people, and normally they are treated with far less scorn than has been poured on Knox by her critics.
This is accounted for in my updated estimates.
Ok, but given your updated estimates, it is consequently unreasonable to just dismiss psychological and interpreted physical evidence (i.e. bloody footprints, crime scene rearrangement and so on). Whether this is actually so or not, it is very possible that these things could add together to give enough evidence to say that someone is probably guilty; going from a 1% to a 99% chance does not take an extremely large amount of evidence.
And this seems to imply that an hour on the internet does NOT beat a year in the courtroom. To know whether this is true or not you would actually have to know the evidence in more detail. For example it does seem that even in Judge Micheli’s report there is a good deal of detail that has been generally unreported in English.
I don’t see why this kind of stuff is any more powerful than its counterparts on the other side: K & S’s benign personalities, lack of criminal history, lack of motive, etc.
That may be true. I read (I didn’t pay attention to the source, it could be just a rumor for all I know) that AK sent an email to a friend, shortly after coming to Italy, saying that she had convinced a stranger to have sex with her on a train. If true that would show a dangerous kind of behavior, even though not criminal. Assuming she might be guilty (for the sake of argument) the most likely explanation would be that they were “playing around” and things got out of hand, not that anyone ever was planning to murder someone.
In any case it seems my last point stands: the evidence as it has been presented to us may be unpersuasive but that doesn’t mean that the same kinds of evidence couldn’t become persuasive in principle, and this may be exactly what happened in the trial.