You’re even more overconfident than Eliezer. Even he didn’t say that the probability of guilt should be less than 10%.
Also, you ignored the evidence of the scene being rearranged. As far as I can tell, there was substantial evidence of this, and substantial evidence of it being by someone other than RG. This implies substantial evidence that someone else was involved. Even if this doesn’t necessarily imply AK is guilty, it definitely implies a probability higher than the original prior (which itself would be much, much higher than the probability you assign of 1 in a 100,000, given the proximity of the persons).
Basically, you are overconfident if you assign less than 10% chance of guilt. And the fact that your opinion is much more extreme than anyone else’s doesn’t show that you are more rational, but is very strong Bayesian evidence of overconfidence bias on your part, since it is well known that humans are naturally overconfident, not underconfident.
“Also, you ignored the evidence of the scene being rearranged. As far as I can tell, there was substantial evidence of this, and substantial evidence of it being by someone other than RG.”
I agree. And also substantial evidence that someone was trying to make it look as though the crime was done by an outsider.
The Friends of Amanda site clearly stated that there was no evidence of cleanup and that “cleanup” had only been referenced in passing in the trial, and the prosecution did not pursue the point.
That is, there is not “substantial evidence” of the scene being rearranged, I’m not sure where you’re getting that.
Yes, it made that claim, but as far as I can see it was wrong. Among other things, the bloodstains on her bra and her body indicated that her bra was removed some time after her death. Even by itself, this implies someone rearranging things. Likewise, luminaled footprints, whether or not they were Amanda’s and Sollecito’s as claimed, proves that someone cleaned something.
Those who say Guede left quickly and therefore was not around to remove the bra, shift the body later and place the cover over her after the blood was dried… forget that she was killed resisting rape and he very likely stayed to complete what he started.
Rudy had plenty of time before he was seen at 2AM in the Disco to first clean up the mess that would have been in the way for what he did next (and by that I mean not only blood but the results of relaxed bowels and urethra) cut off her bra and lay her on her back adjusting where she lay so that he could enjoy what he set out to do originally. That is have sex with her… and he used condoms. And then still time to clean himself up, swab the obvious signs in the bathroom, throw the cover on her and lock the door.
The patrons at the disco who saw him dancing between 2 and 4 AM said he stank very badly....
“luminaled footprints, whether or not they were Amanda’s and Sollecito’s as claimed, proves that someone cleaned something”
No it doen’t. Luminal doesn’t reveal blood EXCLUSIVELY. I read somewhere, sorry, can’t remember where, that it can also light up things like just sweaty/dirty footprints, no blood necessary.
“If Luminol is used it can destroy important properties of the blood. While it can detect even small amounts of blood, the disadvantage is often that the small amount identified is diluted further by the Luminol solution. For these reasons, Luminol is encouraged to be used as a last resort in crime scene investigations to protect the physical evidence.”
I’m sorry, I didn’t realize belittling was in the toolbox of the Rationalist. I’m so glad I found this website so I can update my methods!
Luminol does react with other substances like bleach, but it does so with a different intensity curve; you are talking about chemistry here. According to what I’ve read, experienced technicians can distinguish the quicker/brighter reaction with bleach from the the slower/longer reaction with blood. I don’t know if the technician was asked their professional opinion during the trial as to what they concluded from the reaction.
An understanding of how the evidence was obtained is necessary to judge what the appropriate “weight” is to apply to the physical evidence. You can’t discard the DNA on the knife on the basis of procedure and at the same time avoid learning about the procedures used to obtain the other evidence. That would be a contradiction in your rational approach to evaluating the physical evidence. You would be pre-judging the evidence instead of ‘letting the winds of the evidence point you to one or several suspects,’ which is what Komponisto asks us to do.
I’ve also made the point in other postings that comparing the results of this rationalist approach to the guilty verdict of the trial is comparing two different things.
I propose that if the original survey were redone but this time ask the probability that the defendants were complicit, you would get a result more similar to the jury’s then the results from this blog post.
Disclaimer- I have not yet come to a final judgment on Sollecito & Knox. I play the devil’s advocate on all three sides of the case, largely dependent upon what the prevalent view is in the particular forum. (the prosecution, guede’s, and knox/sollecito’s).
I have not yet come to a final judgment on Sollecito & Knox. I play the devil’s advocate on all three sides of the case, largely dependent upon what the prevalent view is in the particular forum.
Your discourse should be aimed at discovering the truth, not at the bottom line of opposing the local “prevalent view”.
Thanks for the link. While I can’t claim to completely understand it on first (and second) read, a few thoughts do come to mind.
I followed a link on that page to the “What evidence filtered evidence” file, and a comment there struck me as being more descriptive of my approach: “If there are two clever arguers in the box dilemma, it is not quite as good as one curious inquirer, but it is almost as good. ”
Within most of the forums, they are heavily weighed one way or the other; even neutral forums have the problem that the individuals there are weighed one way or the other. They have arrived at a conclusion, and will argue the rest of the evidence to fit the conclusion. So, I would posit that in many cases you will find that you will have one clever arguer. Is it such a stretch to play the other clever arguer by taking the opposing viewpoint? The Evidence article concludes, “if you are hearing an argument for the first time, and you are only hearing one side of the argument, then indeed you should beware”.
Getting back to the Bottom Line theory, my inclination is also to think that Komponisto post actually fits more the ‘bottom line’ theory then my own responses. In discarding other DNA that would have the ‘winds of evidence’ blowing towards other individuals, Komponisto references the FOA interpretation of that evidence, which is coming from about as much of a Bottom Line position as you can get. After that assessment, it is only then that we’re taken down the rational approach of evaluating the remaining evidence, instead of including the DNA evidence in our evaluation.
Further, Komponisto also states early on that one of the places where you would have the highest signal-to-noise ratio is indeed within the minds of those present; I quote, “the most important evidence in a murder investigation will therefore be the evidence that is the closest to the crime itself—evidence on and around the victim, as well as details stored in the brains of people who were present during the act”
It was this ‘mind’ evidence that the police were first presented with, -not- the physical evidence. It was Knox’s own statement that placed her at the scene- first as an eyewitness that implicated the bar owner. It was only -after- the physical evidence came back that they found it pointed to Guede instead of Patrick. Under Komponisto’s framework, we have to evaluate that evidence almost as equally as we do the physical.
After that, Komponisto’s argument that the investigators needed to have an ‘inferential path’ from Guede to Knox is not as strong (and Komponisto argues that it was the investigators who were at error with this point, not the jury). Knox had placed herself at the scene, and the later stories from Knox & Sollecito were too contradictory and too late; too many questions were raised.
Looking at the two lesswrong articles reference, my inclination is that the ‘bottom line’ theory applies to people who are unaware that they are taking such a stand. Does it apply when someone deliberately is aware they are taking an opposing standpoint with the belief that that is a path towards a better understanding of the evidence which would ultimately lead one to a “right” conclusion?
I am quite well aware that I take an opposing viewpoint, and in my recent experience it leads to a better discussion around the evidence then agreeing with someone on the conclusion they’ve arrived to on the evidence. Once people are challenged on their conclusions on their evidence, then the rich arguments come out.
I’ve gone into other forums and argued extensively that the break-in was -not- staged, and it helped me understand all the reasons people came to the conclusion it was. Applying the american legal definition of ‘beyond a reasonable doubt’, I have yet to see someone prove ‘beyond a reasonable doubt’ that the break-in was staged. However, if I were to simply agree with those who believe that, then I would never encounter their rationale on why they came to that conclusion.
In doing so, my own flaws in understanding the evidence are also revealed.
In a final note, in my experiences with my early posts in this forum it seemed I ran into as much people here with the Bottom Line as I have elsewhere . Posts were being voted down as trolls, even simple explanatory posts that provided a technical reference on weighing the evidence. I fail to understand how voting down posts with technical information (that coincidentally provided a contradictory view of the evidence) is “discourse...aimed at discovering the truth”.
But I do sincerely appreciate the reference to the other articles; it has given me something to chew on.
I have not yet come to a final judgment on Sollecito & Knox. I play the devil’s advocate on all three sides of the case, largely dependent upon what the prevalent view is in the particular forum.
Thanks for that link Vladmir. I had been planing to write a post on that very subject. People throw around the “I’m being a devil’s advocate” as though it is a noble mission rather than crime against reason.
Frankly, I’m more inclined to agree with brandon’s take on it, that its “a social rather than individual process,” an aspect the writer of the Against article didn’t consider. This is linked at the bottom of the “Against” article.
Brandon puts forth, “Yudkowsky is right that people who play games by thinking up arguments, however absurd, for a position, are simply being irrational; but this is to no point whatsoever: everyone knows that the devil’s advocate is supposed to come up not with any old argument but with good or at least reasonably plausible arguments, arguments with at least some genuine strengths. People play devil’s advocate for a reason, not simply in order to start making things up without any rational restraint. There are less elaborate and roundabout ways to play-pretend.”
I would point out that online discussion forum are entirely social enterprises, so Brandon’s approach at Devil’s Advocacy would seem to apply.
I associate claims of ‘Devils Advocacy’ with a tendency to use whatever clever rhetorical gambits seem most effective. That is, I associate Advocacy, including ‘Devil’s advocacy’ with bullshit. This I hold in low esteem and more so because this kind of debating is highly respected in many contexts. If the impressiveness of arguments was more reliably correlated with quality of arguments this association would be weaker.
ETA: I can only assume that someone objects to the use of ‘bullshit’ as a descriptor as a distaste for the kind of advocacy I mention is not uncommon here. I tend to use the term to capture a rather precise philosophical concept that we don’t have a better word for. The term is ‘woo’ is the closest approximation.
It seems not entirely unrelated to your issue with advocacy in this context that advocate is also another word for lawyer...
I can vaguely recall a conversation here a while back in which someone was advocating a lawyer, judge and bailiff metaphor for rational discourse and also professing devil’s advocacy in a nearby context. I suspect I disagreed with him.
I associate claims of ‘Devils Advocacy’ with a tendency to use whatever clever rhetorical gambits seem most effective. That is, I associate Advocacy, including ‘Devil’s advocacy’ with bullshit. This I hold in low esteem and more so because this kind of debating is highly respected in many contexts. If the impressiveness of arguments was more reliably correlated with quality of arguments this association would be weaker.
ETA: I can only assume that someone objects to the use of ‘bullshit’ as a descriptor as a distaste for the kind of advocacy I mention is not uncommon here. I tend to use the term to capture a rather precise philosophical concept that we don’t have a better word for. The term is ‘woo’ is the closest approximation.
FYI, not everyone who plays “Devil’s advocate” does so on a rhetorical basis. I don’t think a gut reaction of “bullshit” is appropriate to the term “Devil’s advocate.” Either that, or I have been using the term wrong.
When I use the term I mean, “For the sake of the conversation I will defend the position opposite yours.” If I defend it with rhetoric, I am not doing a very good job at playing Devil’s advocate.
You’re even more overconfident than Eliezer. Even he didn’t say that the probability of guilt should be less than 10%.
Also, you ignored the evidence of the scene being rearranged. As far as I can tell, there was substantial evidence of this, and substantial evidence of it being by someone other than RG. This implies substantial evidence that someone else was involved. Even if this doesn’t necessarily imply AK is guilty, it definitely implies a probability higher than the original prior (which itself would be much, much higher than the probability you assign of 1 in a 100,000, given the proximity of the persons).
Basically, you are overconfident if you assign less than 10% chance of guilt. And the fact that your opinion is much more extreme than anyone else’s doesn’t show that you are more rational, but is very strong Bayesian evidence of overconfidence bias on your part, since it is well known that humans are naturally overconfident, not underconfident.
“Also, you ignored the evidence of the scene being rearranged. As far as I can tell, there was substantial evidence of this, and substantial evidence of it being by someone other than RG.”
I agree. And also substantial evidence that someone was trying to make it look as though the crime was done by an outsider.
The Friends of Amanda site clearly stated that there was no evidence of cleanup and that “cleanup” had only been referenced in passing in the trial, and the prosecution did not pursue the point.
That is, there is not “substantial evidence” of the scene being rearranged, I’m not sure where you’re getting that.
Yes, it made that claim, but as far as I can see it was wrong. Among other things, the bloodstains on her bra and her body indicated that her bra was removed some time after her death. Even by itself, this implies someone rearranging things. Likewise, luminaled footprints, whether or not they were Amanda’s and Sollecito’s as claimed, proves that someone cleaned something.
Those who say Guede left quickly and therefore was not around to remove the bra, shift the body later and place the cover over her after the blood was dried… forget that she was killed resisting rape and he very likely stayed to complete what he started.
Rudy had plenty of time before he was seen at 2AM in the Disco to first clean up the mess that would have been in the way for what he did next (and by that I mean not only blood but the results of relaxed bowels and urethra) cut off her bra and lay her on her back adjusting where she lay so that he could enjoy what he set out to do originally. That is have sex with her… and he used condoms. And then still time to clean himself up, swab the obvious signs in the bathroom, throw the cover on her and lock the door.
The patrons at the disco who saw him dancing between 2 and 4 AM said he stank very badly....
“luminaled footprints, whether or not they were Amanda’s and Sollecito’s as claimed, proves that someone cleaned something”
No it doen’t. Luminal doesn’t reveal blood EXCLUSIVELY. I read somewhere, sorry, can’t remember where, that it can also light up things like just sweaty/dirty footprints, no blood necessary.
You’re absolutely correct. Not only that, but the Luminol footprints specifically tested NEGATIVE for the presence of blood. Every single one of them.
“If Luminol is used it can destroy important properties of the blood. While it can detect even small amounts of blood, the disadvantage is often that the small amount identified is diluted further by the Luminol solution. For these reasons, Luminol is encouraged to be used as a last resort in crime scene investigations to protect the physical evidence.”
Read more at Suite101: Luminol—Chemiluminescent Blood Detector: Forensic Investigators’ Essential Tool for Crime Scene Investigation | Suite101.com http://crime-scene-processing.suite101.com/article.cfm/chemiluminescent_luminol#ixzz0Ztn6XLRc
I Luminoled your bathroom. There were bloody footprints everywhere! Yeah, I didn’t find any actual blood, but like you said Luminol can dilute blood.
Who did you kill in your bathroom Pat? How could you do such a thing?! You monster!
I’m sorry, I didn’t realize belittling was in the toolbox of the Rationalist. I’m so glad I found this website so I can update my methods!
Luminol does react with other substances like bleach, but it does so with a different intensity curve; you are talking about chemistry here. According to what I’ve read, experienced technicians can distinguish the quicker/brighter reaction with bleach from the the slower/longer reaction with blood. I don’t know if the technician was asked their professional opinion during the trial as to what they concluded from the reaction.
An understanding of how the evidence was obtained is necessary to judge what the appropriate “weight” is to apply to the physical evidence. You can’t discard the DNA on the knife on the basis of procedure and at the same time avoid learning about the procedures used to obtain the other evidence. That would be a contradiction in your rational approach to evaluating the physical evidence. You would be pre-judging the evidence instead of ‘letting the winds of the evidence point you to one or several suspects,’ which is what Komponisto asks us to do.
I’ve also made the point in other postings that comparing the results of this rationalist approach to the guilty verdict of the trial is comparing two different things.
I propose that if the original survey were redone but this time ask the probability that the defendants were complicit, you would get a result more similar to the jury’s then the results from this blog post.
Disclaimer- I have not yet come to a final judgment on Sollecito & Knox. I play the devil’s advocate on all three sides of the case, largely dependent upon what the prevalent view is in the particular forum. (the prosecution, guede’s, and knox/sollecito’s).
Your discourse should be aimed at discovering the truth, not at the bottom line of opposing the local “prevalent view”.
Thanks for the link. While I can’t claim to completely understand it on first (and second) read, a few thoughts do come to mind.
I followed a link on that page to the “What evidence filtered evidence” file, and a comment there struck me as being more descriptive of my approach: “If there are two clever arguers in the box dilemma, it is not quite as good as one curious inquirer, but it is almost as good. ”
Within most of the forums, they are heavily weighed one way or the other; even neutral forums have the problem that the individuals there are weighed one way or the other. They have arrived at a conclusion, and will argue the rest of the evidence to fit the conclusion. So, I would posit that in many cases you will find that you will have one clever arguer. Is it such a stretch to play the other clever arguer by taking the opposing viewpoint? The Evidence article concludes, “if you are hearing an argument for the first time, and you are only hearing one side of the argument, then indeed you should beware”.
Getting back to the Bottom Line theory, my inclination is also to think that Komponisto post actually fits more the ‘bottom line’ theory then my own responses. In discarding other DNA that would have the ‘winds of evidence’ blowing towards other individuals, Komponisto references the FOA interpretation of that evidence, which is coming from about as much of a Bottom Line position as you can get. After that assessment, it is only then that we’re taken down the rational approach of evaluating the remaining evidence, instead of including the DNA evidence in our evaluation.
Further, Komponisto also states early on that one of the places where you would have the highest signal-to-noise ratio is indeed within the minds of those present; I quote, “the most important evidence in a murder investigation will therefore be the evidence that is the closest to the crime itself—evidence on and around the victim, as well as details stored in the brains of people who were present during the act”
It was this ‘mind’ evidence that the police were first presented with, -not- the physical evidence. It was Knox’s own statement that placed her at the scene- first as an eyewitness that implicated the bar owner. It was only -after- the physical evidence came back that they found it pointed to Guede instead of Patrick. Under Komponisto’s framework, we have to evaluate that evidence almost as equally as we do the physical.
After that, Komponisto’s argument that the investigators needed to have an ‘inferential path’ from Guede to Knox is not as strong (and Komponisto argues that it was the investigators who were at error with this point, not the jury). Knox had placed herself at the scene, and the later stories from Knox & Sollecito were too contradictory and too late; too many questions were raised.
Looking at the two lesswrong articles reference, my inclination is that the ‘bottom line’ theory applies to people who are unaware that they are taking such a stand. Does it apply when someone deliberately is aware they are taking an opposing standpoint with the belief that that is a path towards a better understanding of the evidence which would ultimately lead one to a “right” conclusion?
I am quite well aware that I take an opposing viewpoint, and in my recent experience it leads to a better discussion around the evidence then agreeing with someone on the conclusion they’ve arrived to on the evidence. Once people are challenged on their conclusions on their evidence, then the rich arguments come out.
I’ve gone into other forums and argued extensively that the break-in was -not- staged, and it helped me understand all the reasons people came to the conclusion it was. Applying the american legal definition of ‘beyond a reasonable doubt’, I have yet to see someone prove ‘beyond a reasonable doubt’ that the break-in was staged. However, if I were to simply agree with those who believe that, then I would never encounter their rationale on why they came to that conclusion.
In doing so, my own flaws in understanding the evidence are also revealed.
In a final note, in my experiences with my early posts in this forum it seemed I ran into as much people here with the Bottom Line as I have elsewhere . Posts were being voted down as trolls, even simple explanatory posts that provided a technical reference on weighing the evidence. I fail to understand how voting down posts with technical information (that coincidentally provided a contradictory view of the evidence) is “discourse...aimed at discovering the truth”.
But I do sincerely appreciate the reference to the other articles; it has given me something to chew on.
Pat
See also: Against Devil’s Advocacy.
Thanks for that link Vladmir. I had been planing to write a post on that very subject. People throw around the “I’m being a devil’s advocate” as though it is a noble mission rather than crime against reason.
Frankly, I’m more inclined to agree with brandon’s take on it, that its “a social rather than individual process,” an aspect the writer of the Against article didn’t consider. This is linked at the bottom of the “Against” article.
http://branemrys.blogspot.com/2008/06/on-devils-advocacy.html
Brandon puts forth, “Yudkowsky is right that people who play games by thinking up arguments, however absurd, for a position, are simply being irrational; but this is to no point whatsoever: everyone knows that the devil’s advocate is supposed to come up not with any old argument but with good or at least reasonably plausible arguments, arguments with at least some genuine strengths. People play devil’s advocate for a reason, not simply in order to start making things up without any rational restraint. There are less elaborate and roundabout ways to play-pretend.”
I would point out that online discussion forum are entirely social enterprises, so Brandon’s approach at Devil’s Advocacy would seem to apply.
Pat
I associate claims of ‘Devils Advocacy’ with a tendency to use whatever clever rhetorical gambits seem most effective. That is, I associate Advocacy, including ‘Devil’s advocacy’ with bullshit. This I hold in low esteem and more so because this kind of debating is highly respected in many contexts. If the impressiveness of arguments was more reliably correlated with quality of arguments this association would be weaker.
ETA: I can only assume that someone objects to the use of ‘bullshit’ as a descriptor as a distaste for the kind of advocacy I mention is not uncommon here. I tend to use the term to capture a rather precise philosophical concept that we don’t have a better word for. The term is ‘woo’ is the closest approximation.
Personally, I thought you were referring to Frankfurt’s theory of bullshit.
Well spotted.
It seems not entirely unrelated to your issue with advocacy in this context that advocate is also another word for lawyer...
I can vaguely recall a conversation here a while back in which someone was advocating a lawyer, judge and bailiff metaphor for rational discourse and also professing devil’s advocacy in a nearby context. I suspect I disagreed with him.
I associate claims of ‘Devils Advocacy’ with a tendency to use whatever clever rhetorical gambits seem most effective. That is, I associate Advocacy, including ‘Devil’s advocacy’ with bullshit. This I hold in low esteem and more so because this kind of debating is highly respected in many contexts. If the impressiveness of arguments was more reliably correlated with quality of arguments this association would be weaker.
ETA: I can only assume that someone objects to the use of ‘bullshit’ as a descriptor as a distaste for the kind of advocacy I mention is not uncommon here. I tend to use the term to capture a rather precise philosophical concept that we don’t have a better word for. The term is ‘woo’ is the closest approximation.
FYI, not everyone who plays “Devil’s advocate” does so on a rhetorical basis. I don’t think a gut reaction of “bullshit” is appropriate to the term “Devil’s advocate.” Either that, or I have been using the term wrong.
When I use the term I mean, “For the sake of the conversation I will defend the position opposite yours.” If I defend it with rhetoric, I am not doing a very good job at playing Devil’s advocate.