This as a general phenomenon (underrating strong responses to crises) was something I highlighted (calling it the Morituri Nolumus Mori) with a possible extension to AI all the way back in 2020. And Stefan Schubert has talked about ‘sleepwalk bias’ even earlier than that as a similar phenomenon.
I think the short explanation as to why we’re in some people’s 98th percentile world so far (and even my ~60th percentile) for AI governance success is that if was obvious to you how transformative AI would be over the next couple of decades in 2021 and yet nothing happened, it seems like governments are just generally incapable.
The fundamental attribution error makes you think governments are just not on the ball and don’t care or lack the capacity to deal with extinction risks, rather than decision makers not understanding obvious-to-you evidence that AI poses an extinction risk. Now that they do understand, they will react accordingly. It doesn’t meant that they will react well necessarily, but they will act on their belief in some manner.
This as a general phenomenon (underrating strong responses to crises) was something I highlighted (calling it the Morituri Nolumus Mori) with a possible extension to AI all the way back in 2020. And Stefan Schubert has talked about ‘sleepwalk bias’ even earlier than that as a similar phenomenon.
https://twitter.com/davidmanheim/status/1719046950991938001
https://twitter.com/AaronBergman18/status/1719031282309497238
I think the short explanation as to why we’re in some people’s 98th percentile world so far (and even my ~60th percentile) for AI governance success is that if was obvious to you how transformative AI would be over the next couple of decades in 2021 and yet nothing happened, it seems like governments are just generally incapable.
The fundamental attribution error makes you think governments are just not on the ball and don’t care or lack the capacity to deal with extinction risks, rather than decision makers not understanding obvious-to-you evidence that AI poses an extinction risk. Now that they do understand, they will react accordingly. It doesn’t meant that they will react well necessarily, but they will act on their belief in some manner.