This is great. It seems to directly hit at making me more “genre-savvy”. If I were spending lots of time forecasting, I would probably do this for an hour a day.
The only improvement I can think of is to have forecasters study in hindsight what their ex-ante probability should have been, and show you that aggregate number too. But that seems like a lot of work plus potentially biased.
This is great. It seems to directly hit at making me more “genre-savvy”. If I were spending lots of time forecasting, I would probably do this for an hour a day.
The only improvement I can think of is to have forecasters study in hindsight what their ex-ante probability should have been, and show you that aggregate number too. But that seems like a lot of work plus potentially biased.