Sometimes I wonder if the best case of assuring that the world will collaborate on AGI safety would be some sort of Watchmen-like hoax with a fake hyper aggressive AGI-mimicking system/event that scares the world into collaborating in lockstep until safe AGI can be deployed. Without real urgency to avoid existential risks, the greatest risk of AGI doom IMO is competition between nation states who see deployment of AGI as a means to fully realize their nationalistic aims, under-appreciating the risks of their AGI war machine going rogue.
The thing that made AI risk “real” for me was a report of an event that turned out not to have happened (seemingly just a miscommunication). My brain was already very concerned, but my gut had not caught up until then. That said, I do not think this should be taken as a norm, for three reasons:
Creating hoaxes in support of a cause is a good way to turn a lot of people against a cause
In general, if you feel a need to fake evidence for your position, that is itself is weak evidence against your position
I don’t like dishonesty
If AI capabilities continue to progress and if AI x-risk is a real problem (which I think it is, credence ~95%), then I hope we get a warning shot. But I think a false flag “warning shot” has negative utility.
May I remind you how that is implied to end in Watchmen? That’s just one of the reasons why this kind of thing isn’t just horribly unethical, but also probably ineffectual. That’s the problem with the supervillain brand of consequentialism in general.
May I remind you how that is implied to end in Watchmen?
As I recall, it ends with the world successfully united against the alien threat and the imminent nuclear apocalypse averted. The Rorschach notebook with his expose of Ozymandias is successfully mailed before he can be killed, but in line with the failure of the rest of his life and the powerlessness of the truth in the cynical Watchmen universe where no one else cares about truth & justice as much as the autistic Rorschach, it is implied that it will be published (and some will know the truth of Ozymandias’s hoax) but that it will be ignored because it is published in the in-universe equivalent of the John Birch Society’s magazine (or possibly Larouchites, I was never quite sure) and Ozymandias has killed or co-opted or driven away everyone who might confirm the claims (such as the researchers who created the monster, or Night Owl or Doctor Manhattan) while remaining the smartest & richest man in the world.
I would also note that “hey, what if your consequentialism didn’t lead to good consequences, how about that? betcha never thought of that smartiepants” would be a pretty poor critique of consequentialism—it is, in fact, the standard Hollywood-movie-level critique, and if your interpretation of Alan Moore’s Watchmen reduces his work to something as simple-minded as a Hollywood movie, it’s probably wrong.
I mean, if your consequentialist plan requires killing millions it better have one damn high chance of succeeding. I don’t see a point in focusing on Rorschach’s journal in the end if not to suggest that, as the peak of dramatic irony, after dying a complete loser ignored by everyone and failing to stop Ozymandias, Rorschach’s last action will in fact trigger a chain of events that ruins even the one good thing to come out of his plan. The thing is that this kind of false flag plan is fragile; it doesn’t take much to find out it’s actually fake, which ends up accomplishing the exact opposite effect.
If the alternative to your consequentialist plan is an all-out thermonuclear war between the USSR and USA within months which will end civilization with the deaths of hundreds of millions and perhaps billions of people, it doesn’t particularly need a ‘damn high chance of succeeding’. How many nukes were targeted at Manhattan Times Square under the Russian equivalent of their SIOP? Probably >1...
I don’t see a point in focusing on Rorschach’s journal in the end if not to suggest that, as the peak of dramatic irony
It certainly is ironic, but as I said, to emphasize the powerlessness and futility of the ‘truth and justice and the American Way’, as Rorschach worships the naive superhero ideals. Who watches the watchmen? No one.
When all its work is done, the lie shall rot;
The truth is great, and shall prevail,
When none cares whether it prevail or not.
The thing is that this kind of false flag plan is fragile; it doesn’t take much to find out it’s actually fake, which ends up accomplishing the exact opposite effect.
Not really? Can you name three examples of false flags where they accomplished their initial political goals and triggered the intended war or other major event, but then were exposed, and everyone went ‘oh my gosh, we were tricked! it wasn’t true!’ and immediately undid everything they had already done? I can’t.
False flags generally only fail if exposed early on before anything can happen, while there is still a public ‘choice’ in the matter. (The Russian false flags in the runup to Ukraine, for example—minimal propaganda/political effect because exposed so quickly, so Putin invaded ‘naked’.) History is filled with false flags which were exposed not terribly long after, to no real effect. The Reichstag Fire, the Manchurian Incident, the Gulf of Tonkin incident… (The Maine, WWI ‘German atrocities in Belgium’...) Sure, they got exposed, but the Nazis were still in power, Imperial Japan remained invaded, the Vietnam War remained the Vietnam War, etc.
I mean, there’s a big difference between a false flag to cause a war, and a false flag to prevent one. If you successfully started a war, after a while people have given each other plenty of reasons for hate, and removing the casus belli doesn’t do much. If you successfully averted one, the hatred will only be rekindled tenfold upon discovering you’ve all been duped.
Sometimes I wonder if the best case of assuring that the world will collaborate on AGI safety would be some sort of Watchmen-like hoax with a fake hyper aggressive AGI-mimicking system/event that scares the world into collaborating in lockstep until safe AGI can be deployed. Without real urgency to avoid existential risks, the greatest risk of AGI doom IMO is competition between nation states who see deployment of AGI as a means to fully realize their nationalistic aims, under-appreciating the risks of their AGI war machine going rogue.
The thing that made AI risk “real” for me was a report of an event that turned out not to have happened (seemingly just a miscommunication). My brain was already very concerned, but my gut had not caught up until then. That said, I do not think this should be taken as a norm, for three reasons:
Creating hoaxes in support of a cause is a good way to turn a lot of people against a cause
In general, if you feel a need to fake evidence for your position, that is itself is weak evidence against your position
I don’t like dishonesty
If AI capabilities continue to progress and if AI x-risk is a real problem (which I think it is, credence ~95%), then I hope we get a warning shot. But I think a false flag “warning shot” has negative utility.
May I remind you how that is implied to end in Watchmen? That’s just one of the reasons why this kind of thing isn’t just horribly unethical, but also probably ineffectual. That’s the problem with the supervillain brand of consequentialism in general.
As I recall, it ends with the world successfully united against the alien threat and the imminent nuclear apocalypse averted. The Rorschach notebook with his expose of Ozymandias is successfully mailed before he can be killed, but in line with the failure of the rest of his life and the powerlessness of the truth in the cynical Watchmen universe where no one else cares about truth & justice as much as the autistic Rorschach, it is implied that it will be published (and some will know the truth of Ozymandias’s hoax) but that it will be ignored because it is published in the in-universe equivalent of the John Birch Society’s magazine (or possibly Larouchites, I was never quite sure) and Ozymandias has killed or co-opted or driven away everyone who might confirm the claims (such as the researchers who created the monster, or Night Owl or Doctor Manhattan) while remaining the smartest & richest man in the world.
I would also note that “hey, what if your consequentialism didn’t lead to good consequences, how about that? betcha never thought of that smartiepants” would be a pretty poor critique of consequentialism—it is, in fact, the standard Hollywood-movie-level critique, and if your interpretation of Alan Moore’s Watchmen reduces his work to something as simple-minded as a Hollywood movie, it’s probably wrong.
I mean, if your consequentialist plan requires killing millions it better have one damn high chance of succeeding. I don’t see a point in focusing on Rorschach’s journal in the end if not to suggest that, as the peak of dramatic irony, after dying a complete loser ignored by everyone and failing to stop Ozymandias, Rorschach’s last action will in fact trigger a chain of events that ruins even the one good thing to come out of his plan. The thing is that this kind of false flag plan is fragile; it doesn’t take much to find out it’s actually fake, which ends up accomplishing the exact opposite effect.
If the alternative to your consequentialist plan is an all-out thermonuclear war between the USSR and USA within months which will end civilization with the deaths of hundreds of millions and perhaps billions of people, it doesn’t particularly need a ‘damn high chance of succeeding’. How many nukes were targeted at Manhattan Times Square under the Russian equivalent of their SIOP? Probably >1...
It certainly is ironic, but as I said, to emphasize the powerlessness and futility of the ‘truth and justice and the American Way’, as Rorschach worships the naive superhero ideals. Who watches the watchmen? No one.
Not really? Can you name three examples of false flags where they accomplished their initial political goals and triggered the intended war or other major event, but then were exposed, and everyone went ‘oh my gosh, we were tricked! it wasn’t true!’ and immediately undid everything they had already done? I can’t.
False flags generally only fail if exposed early on before anything can happen, while there is still a public ‘choice’ in the matter. (The Russian false flags in the runup to Ukraine, for example—minimal propaganda/political effect because exposed so quickly, so Putin invaded ‘naked’.) History is filled with false flags which were exposed not terribly long after, to no real effect. The Reichstag Fire, the Manchurian Incident, the Gulf of Tonkin incident… (The Maine, WWI ‘German atrocities in Belgium’...) Sure, they got exposed, but the Nazis were still in power, Imperial Japan remained invaded, the Vietnam War remained the Vietnam War, etc.
I mean, there’s a big difference between a false flag to cause a war, and a false flag to prevent one. If you successfully started a war, after a while people have given each other plenty of reasons for hate, and removing the casus belli doesn’t do much. If you successfully averted one, the hatred will only be rekindled tenfold upon discovering you’ve all been duped.
That’s a rather extreme idea, even if humanity was on the brink of extinction deceit is hard to justify.
We haven’t even scratched the surface of possible practical solutions, once those are exhausted there are many more possible paths.