I’m also not a geopolitics person, but quite frankly, personally, I’m deeply scared. Putin’s nuclear half-threats… Belarus now receiving nukes from Russia...
And most importantly—why the heck did he even invaded Ukraine in the first place?? The closest I’ve found to a truthful justification was “if Ukraine joins NATO and decides to take back Crimea by military action, NATO will invoke article 5 and it might lead to WW3”. But is he being honest? NATO is a defensive organization, the US has invaded many countries since it joined, and no time was article 5 invoked except on 9/11 where the US was actually attacked first. So Ukraine invading Crimea (part of Russia) wouldn’t be anything defensive that would justify invoking article 5 - or would it since international law, I think, still recognizes Crimea as Ukranian territory??
Even then, like I say, I see no good reason to invade Ukraine. The 200.000 troops he sent are the same number of active Ukrainian troops (which will be almost all used), plus you have some 10 million fighting age men who seem very willing to grab a gun and take it to the streets. Most importantly, US/world is steadily supplying Ukraine with weapons, including anti aircraft and anti tank weapons which will do a lot of damage to Russia’s air and tank superiority. As a result, Russia might take Kiev, but I find it almost impossible that it will last any long, since Ukrainians are extremely determined and have the help of the whole world almost.
So this will only hurt Russia mid/long-term, and possibly make Ukraine join NATO quicker. Is this an emotional move? Is this a desperate all-in? I’m deeply scared, honestly wouldn’t be surprised with at least Russia nuking Ukraine after their army has been weakened and they feel they can’t win conventionally.
I definitely agree with all your claims. If I had money, moving to the countryside AND buying one of those doomsday bomb shelter flats would be something I would do immediately.
Russia managed to take Crimea without any bloodshed. There’s a good chance that the military planners thought that taking Ukraine would also be easy. American military planners thought the war in Iraq would be much easier. That said, just because the war isn’t over after a single week doesn’t mean that Russia is not able to decisively win it.
There’s some chance that Putin believes that the war gives him a good negotiating position and he’s now in a position to get deals he wouldn’t have gotten before.
Taking a small portion of a country that is an island and where the majority of the population is ethnically the same as the invaders is completely different from taking a whole country of 45 million whose population is deeply adverse towards you.
“There’s some chance that Putin believes that the war gives him a good negotiating position and he’s now in a position to get deals he wouldn’t have gotten before.”
After possibly causing severe losses to his army, to his economy, and to his reputation? The only thing that made Russia a superpower before this war was nukes, and this only comes to cement that fact. Hence my claims about irrationality / all-in gamble. Hence my fear.
Anyway, not in reply to your comment, but don’t really understand all the downvotes, from what I’ve been reading my opinion isn’t even that unpopular or anything wildly out there.
I’m also not a geopolitics person, but quite frankly, personally, I’m deeply scared. Putin’s nuclear half-threats… Belarus now receiving nukes from Russia...
And most importantly—why the heck did he even invaded Ukraine in the first place?? The closest I’ve found to a truthful justification was “if Ukraine joins NATO and decides to take back Crimea by military action, NATO will invoke article 5 and it might lead to WW3”. But is he being honest? NATO is a defensive organization, the US has invaded many countries since it joined, and no time was article 5 invoked except on 9/11 where the US was actually attacked first. So Ukraine invading Crimea (part of Russia) wouldn’t be anything defensive that would justify invoking article 5 - or would it since international law, I think, still recognizes Crimea as Ukranian territory??
Even then, like I say, I see no good reason to invade Ukraine. The 200.000 troops he sent are the same number of active Ukrainian troops (which will be almost all used), plus you have some 10 million fighting age men who seem very willing to grab a gun and take it to the streets. Most importantly, US/world is steadily supplying Ukraine with weapons, including anti aircraft and anti tank weapons which will do a lot of damage to Russia’s air and tank superiority. As a result, Russia might take Kiev, but I find it almost impossible that it will last any long, since Ukrainians are extremely determined and have the help of the whole world almost.
So this will only hurt Russia mid/long-term, and possibly make Ukraine join NATO quicker. Is this an emotional move? Is this a desperate all-in? I’m deeply scared, honestly wouldn’t be surprised with at least Russia nuking Ukraine after their army has been weakened and they feel they can’t win conventionally.
I definitely agree with all your claims. If I had money, moving to the countryside AND buying one of those doomsday bomb shelter flats would be something I would do immediately.
Let’s hope this doesn’t escalate!
Russia managed to take Crimea without any bloodshed. There’s a good chance that the military planners thought that taking Ukraine would also be easy. American military planners thought the war in Iraq would be much easier. That said, just because the war isn’t over after a single week doesn’t mean that Russia is not able to decisively win it.
There’s some chance that Putin believes that the war gives him a good negotiating position and he’s now in a position to get deals he wouldn’t have gotten before.
Taking a small portion of a country that is an island and where the majority of the population is ethnically the same as the invaders is completely different from taking a whole country of 45 million whose population is deeply adverse towards you.
“There’s some chance that Putin believes that the war gives him a good negotiating position and he’s now in a position to get deals he wouldn’t have gotten before.”
After possibly causing severe losses to his army, to his economy, and to his reputation? The only thing that made Russia a superpower before this war was nukes, and this only comes to cement that fact. Hence my claims about irrationality / all-in gamble. Hence my fear.
Anyway, not in reply to your comment, but don’t really understand all the downvotes, from what I’ve been reading my opinion isn’t even that unpopular or anything wildly out there.