Russia managed to take Crimea without any bloodshed. There’s a good chance that the military planners thought that taking Ukraine would also be easy. American military planners thought the war in Iraq would be much easier. That said, just because the war isn’t over after a single week doesn’t mean that Russia is not able to decisively win it.
There’s some chance that Putin believes that the war gives him a good negotiating position and he’s now in a position to get deals he wouldn’t have gotten before.
Taking a small portion of a country that is an island and where the majority of the population is ethnically the same as the invaders is completely different from taking a whole country of 45 million whose population is deeply adverse towards you.
“There’s some chance that Putin believes that the war gives him a good negotiating position and he’s now in a position to get deals he wouldn’t have gotten before.”
After possibly causing severe losses to his army, to his economy, and to his reputation? The only thing that made Russia a superpower before this war was nukes, and this only comes to cement that fact. Hence my claims about irrationality / all-in gamble. Hence my fear.
Anyway, not in reply to your comment, but don’t really understand all the downvotes, from what I’ve been reading my opinion isn’t even that unpopular or anything wildly out there.
Russia managed to take Crimea without any bloodshed. There’s a good chance that the military planners thought that taking Ukraine would also be easy. American military planners thought the war in Iraq would be much easier. That said, just because the war isn’t over after a single week doesn’t mean that Russia is not able to decisively win it.
There’s some chance that Putin believes that the war gives him a good negotiating position and he’s now in a position to get deals he wouldn’t have gotten before.
Taking a small portion of a country that is an island and where the majority of the population is ethnically the same as the invaders is completely different from taking a whole country of 45 million whose population is deeply adverse towards you.
“There’s some chance that Putin believes that the war gives him a good negotiating position and he’s now in a position to get deals he wouldn’t have gotten before.”
After possibly causing severe losses to his army, to his economy, and to his reputation? The only thing that made Russia a superpower before this war was nukes, and this only comes to cement that fact. Hence my claims about irrationality / all-in gamble. Hence my fear.
Anyway, not in reply to your comment, but don’t really understand all the downvotes, from what I’ve been reading my opinion isn’t even that unpopular or anything wildly out there.