“I’m always timid in social situations therefore I want to be timid in social situations” is invalid reasoning.
To a first approximation, and as a heuristic rule, it is valid. There are specific additional reasons to believe the conclusion invalid, and they have to do with things other than the way the initial faulty conclusion was generated. You believe the reasoning invalid because you know the conclusion to be invalid, but not the other way around.
Agreed—I was too dismissive of what can be learnt from past decision-making experiences.
I was just pointing out that “I’m always timid in social situations therefore I want to be timid in social situations” is invalid reasoning.
To a first approximation, and as a heuristic rule, it is valid. There are specific additional reasons to believe the conclusion invalid, and they have to do with things other than the way the initial faulty conclusion was generated. You believe the reasoning invalid because you know the conclusion to be invalid, but not the other way around.
I meant “want” as in “this is one of my life goals; I would not wish to self-modify to be any other way”