To be clear, the question is not whether we should divert resources from FAI research to trying to slow world economic growth, that seems risky and ineffectual. The question is whether, as a good and ethical person, I should avoid any opportunities to join in ensembles trying to increase world economic growth.
Follow-up: If you are part of an ensemble generating ideas for increasing world economic growth, how much information will that give you about the specific ways in which economic growth will manifest, compared to not being part of that ensemble? How easily leveraged is that information towards directly controlling or exploiting a noticeable fraction of the newly-grown economy?
As a singular example: how much money could you get from judicious investments, if you know where things are going next? How usable would those funds be towards mitigating UFAI risks and optimizing FAI research, in ratio to the increased general risk of UFAI caused by the economic growth itself?
That’s why I keep telling people about Scott Sumner, market monetarism, and NGDP level determinism—it might not let you beat the stock market indices, but you can end up with some really bizarre expectations if you don’t know about the best modern concept of “tight money” and “loose money”. E.g. all the people who were worried about hyperinflation when the Fed lowered interest rates to 0.25 and started printing huge amounts of money, while the market monetarists were saying “You’re still going to get sub-trend inflation, our indicators say there isn’t enough money being printed.”
Beating the market is hard. Not being stupid with respect to the market is doable.
Perhaps a better question would be “If my mission is to save the world from UFAI, should I expend time and resources attempting to determine what stance to take on other causes?” No matter your level of potential to learn multiple subjects, investing that time and energy into FAI would, in theory, result in a better outcome with FAI—though I am becoming increasingly aware of the fact that there are limits to how good I can be with subjects I haven’t specialized in and if you think about it, you may realize that you have limitations as well. One of the most intelligent people I’ve ever met said to me (on a different subject):
“I don’t know enough to do it right. I just know enough to get myself in trouble.”
If you can do anything with the time and effort this ensemble requires of you to make a quality decision and participate in activities, what would make the biggest difference?
To be clear, the question is not whether we should divert resources from FAI research to trying to slow world economic growth, that seems risky and ineffectual. The question is whether, as a good and ethical person, I should avoid any opportunities to join in ensembles trying to increase world economic growth.
If the ideas for increasing world economic growth can be traced back to you, might the improvement in your reputation increase the odds of FAI?
Sounds like a rather fragile causal pathway. Especially if one is joining an ensemble.
Follow-up: If you are part of an ensemble generating ideas for increasing world economic growth, how much information will that give you about the specific ways in which economic growth will manifest, compared to not being part of that ensemble? How easily leveraged is that information towards directly controlling or exploiting a noticeable fraction of the newly-grown economy?
As a singular example: how much money could you get from judicious investments, if you know where things are going next? How usable would those funds be towards mitigating UFAI risks and optimizing FAI research, in ratio to the increased general risk of UFAI caused by the economic growth itself?
That’s why I keep telling people about Scott Sumner, market monetarism, and NGDP level determinism—it might not let you beat the stock market indices, but you can end up with some really bizarre expectations if you don’t know about the best modern concept of “tight money” and “loose money”. E.g. all the people who were worried about hyperinflation when the Fed lowered interest rates to 0.25 and started printing huge amounts of money, while the market monetarists were saying “You’re still going to get sub-trend inflation, our indicators say there isn’t enough money being printed.”
Beating the market is hard. Not being stupid with respect to the market is doable.
Perhaps a better question would be “If my mission is to save the world from UFAI, should I expend time and resources attempting to determine what stance to take on other causes?” No matter your level of potential to learn multiple subjects, investing that time and energy into FAI would, in theory, result in a better outcome with FAI—though I am becoming increasingly aware of the fact that there are limits to how good I can be with subjects I haven’t specialized in and if you think about it, you may realize that you have limitations as well. One of the most intelligent people I’ve ever met said to me (on a different subject):
“I don’t know enough to do it right. I just know enough to get myself in trouble.”
If you can do anything with the time and effort this ensemble requires of you to make a quality decision and participate in activities, what would make the biggest difference?