Here’s a first-principles normalization—take national tests, and normalize the positives to the total number of tests performed. This assumes linear returns to testing which is wrong, but it produces a curve of the shape of ACTUAL infections (without telling you the true number, just its relative shape over time) that mirrors the death curve shifted by two weeks very closely:
That’s why the third chart each week is positive test rates! And it’s the primary stay I look at. I’d do by region but would require a scraper or new data source.
https://rt.live gives a useful “Adjusted Positive Tests & Implied Infections” curve for each state, similar to the above normalization, adjusting for testing volume. The implied infections adjusts for the delay in infection vs testing.
Here’s a first-principles normalization—take national tests, and normalize the positives to the total number of tests performed. This assumes linear returns to testing which is wrong, but it produces a curve of the shape of ACTUAL infections (without telling you the true number, just its relative shape over time) that mirrors the death curve shifted by two weeks very closely:
https://twitter.com/econstatsnerd/status/1276629941384331264
That’s why the third chart each week is positive test rates! And it’s the primary stay I look at. I’d do by region but would require a scraper or new data source.
https://rt.live gives a useful “Adjusted Positive Tests & Implied Infections” curve for each state, similar to the above normalization, adjusting for testing volume. The implied infections adjusts for the delay in infection vs testing.
As an example, here’s for Florida: https://rt.live/us/FL