Evolution is an argument that there is no barrier, even with very incompetent tinkerers that fail to figure things out (and don’t consider copying biology). So it doesn’t take an arbitrarily long time, and takes less with enough compute[1]. The 100-1000 years figure was about the fusion and macroscopic biotech milestone in the hypothetical of no general AI, which with general AI running at a higher speed becomes 0.1-10 years.
Evolution is an argument that there is no barrier, even with very incompetent tinkerers that fail to figure things out (and don’t consider copying biology). So it doesn’t take an arbitrarily long time, and takes less with enough compute[1]. The 100-1000 years figure was about the fusion and macroscopic biotech milestone in the hypothetical of no general AI, which with general AI running at a higher speed becomes 0.1-10 years.
Moore’s Law of Mad Science: Every 18 months, the minimum IQ to destroy the world drops by one point.