If the climate skeptics want to win me over, then the way for them to do so is straightforward: they should ignore me, and try instead to win over the academic climatology community, majorities of chemists and physicists, Nobel laureates, the IPCC, National Academies of Science, etc. with superior research and arguments.
If the atheists what to win me over, then the way for them to do so is straightforward: they should ignore me, and try instead to win over the theology community, bishops, the Pope, pastors, denominational and non-denominational bodies, etc., with superior research and arguments.
To this, the skeptics might respond: but of course we can’t win over the mainstream scientific community, since they’re all in the grip of an evil left-wing conspiracy or delusion! Now, that response is precisely where “the buck stops” for me, and further discussion becomes useless. If I’m asked which of the following two groups is more likely to be in the grip of a delusion — (a) Senate Republicans, Freeman Dyson, and a certain excitable string-theory blogger, or (b) virtually every single expert in the relevant fields, and virtually every other chemist and physicist who I’ve ever respected or heard of — well then, it comes down to a judgment call, but I’m 100% comfortable with my judgment.
Not that I don’t think this is a fair counterpoint to make, but in my own experience trying to find the best arguments for religion, I learned a lot more and got better reasoning talking to random laypeople than by asking priests and theologians.
Of course, the fact that I talked to a lot more laypeople than priests and theologians is most likely the determining factor here, but my experiences discussing the nature and details of climate change have not followed a similar pattern at all.
Just so I’m clear: do you believe the theology community (“bishops, the Pope, pastors, denominational and non-denominational bodies, etc.”) is as reliable an authority on the nature and existence of the thing atheists don’t believe in than the academic climatology community is on the nature and existence of the thing climate skeptics don’t believe in?
If so, then this makes perfect sense.
That said, my experience with both groups doesn’t justify such a belief.
I agree that nobody denies climate exists, but I think that’s irrelevant to the question at hand.
To clarify that a bit… Aaronson asserted a relationship between “climate skeptics” and “the academic climatology community” with respect to some concept X which climate skeptics deny exists. We could get into a whole discussion about what exactly X is (it certainly isn’t climate), but rather than go down that road I simply referred to it as “the thing climate skeptics don’t believe in.”
Eugine_Nier asserted a relationship between “atheists” and “the theology community” with respect to some concept Y which atheists deny exists. We could similarly get into a whole discussion about what exactly Y is, but rather than go down that road I simply referred to it as “the thing atheists don’t believe in.”
If the theology community is in the same relationship to Y as the academic climatology community is to X, then the analogy holds.
I just don’t believe that the theology community is in that relationship to Y.
I just don’t believe that the theology community is in that relationship to Y.
I believe Eugine_Nier is suggesting not that theology community is in the same relationship to Y as the academic climatology community is to X, but the reverse.
Just so I’m clear: do you believe the theology community (“bishops, the Pope, pastors, denominational and non-denominational bodies, etc.”) is as reliable an authority on the nature and existence of the thing atheists don’t believe in than the academic climatology community is on the nature and existence of the thing climate skeptics don’t believe in?
If so, then this makes perfect sense.
That said, my experience with both groups doesn’t justify such a belief.
Well, no. You’re an atheist. I’m sure a Christian climate skeptic would agree with you, with the terms reversed.
I’m sure a Christian climate skeptic would agree with you, with the terms reversed.
That is, a Christian climate skeptic would claim that their experience with both groups doesn’t justify the belief that the academic climatology community is as reliable an authority as the theology community?
In a trivial sense I agree with you, in that there’s all sorts of tribal signaling effects going on, but not if I assume honest discussion. In my experience, strongly identified Christians believe that most theologians are unreliable authorities on the nature of God.
Indeed, it would be hard for them to believe otherwise, since most theologians don’t consider Jesus Christ to have been uniquely divine.
Of course, if we implicitly restrict “the theology community” to “the Christian theology community,” as many Americans seem to, then you’re probably right for sufficiently narrow definitions of “Christian”.
Hmm, interesting point. At a guess, I’d say there probably is more disagreement among theologians than climatologists, so there does seem to be some asymmetry there.
On the other hand, if God is analogous to Global Warming (or whatever) then I suppose the analogy for those disputed details might be predictions of how soon we’ll all be flooded or killed by extreme weather or whatever and what, exactly, the solution is (including “there isn’t one”.) So there’s that.
If “God” refers to what theologians and atheists disagree about, and “Global Warming” refers to what climatologists and climate skeptics disagree about, then sure. I’d be cautious of assuming we agree on what those labels properly refer to more broadly, though.
the analogy for those disputed details might be predictions of how soon we’ll all be flooded or killed by extreme weather or whatever and what, exactly, the solution is
Well, OK. Using that analogy, I guess I would say that if climatologists disagreed with each other about Global Warming as widely as theologians disagree with each other about God, I would not consider climatologists any more reliable a source of predictions of how soon we’ll all be flooded or killed by extreme weather or whatever and what, exactly, the solution is, than I consider theologists reliable as a source of predictions about God.
I’d be cautious of assuming we agree on what those labels properly refer to more broadly, though.
Yup. Hence the “or whatever”.
Well, OK. Using that analogy, I guess I would say that if climatologists disagreed with each other about Global Warming as widely as theologians disagree with each other about God, I would not consider climatologists any more reliable a source of predictions of how soon we’ll all be flooded or killed by extreme weather or whatever and what, exactly, the solution is, than I consider theologists reliable as a source of predictions about God.
The point, of course, is that while they may disagree about the details, they all agree on the existence of the thing in question. Although TBH climatologists do seem to have more consensus than theologians.
The point, of course, is that while they may disagree about the details, they all agree on the existence of the thing in question.
It is not clear to me how to distinguish between “Christian, Buddhist, and Wiccan theologians agree on the existence of God but disagree on the details of God” and “Christian, Buddhist, and Wiccan theologians disagree on whether God exists”
This is almost entirely due to a lack of clarity about what “God” refers to.
Well, Buddhist, and Wiccan theologians are in a minority compared to Christian, Hindu, Deist and so on. And there is a spectrum of both Wiccan and Buddhist thought ranging from standard atheism + relevant cosmology to pretty clear Theism of various kinds (plus relevant cosmology.) Still, it’s probably more common than among climatologists, depending on how strictly we define “theologian”. (And “climatologist” for that matter, there are a good few fringe “climatologists” who push climate skepticism.)
If atheists really thought that theists believed just because the pastors did, then targeting the pastors would seem to be the best way to go about it, yes. Either by attacking their credibility or attempting to convince them otherwise/attack the emotional basis of their faith. Even if the playing field was uneven and the pastors were actually crooked, there just wouldn’t be any gain in going after the believers as individuals.
I can’t think of a reply to this that won’t start a game of reference class tennis; but I think there’s a possibility that Aaronson’s list is a more complete set of the relevant experts on the climate than your list is of the relevant experts on the existence of deities. If we grant the existence of deities, and merely wish to learn about their behavior; your list would be analogous to Aaronson’s.
I think “etc.” is a request to the reader to be a good classifier—simply truncating the list at “etc.” is overfitting, and defeats the purpose of the “etc.” Contrariwise, construing “etc.” to mean “everything else, everywhere” is trying to make do with fewer parameters than you actually need. The proper use of “etc.” is to use the training examples to construct a good classifier, and flesh out members of the category by lazy evaluation as needed.
-- Scott Aaronson on areas of expertise
If the atheists what to win me over, then the way for them to do so is straightforward: they should ignore me, and try instead to win over the theology community, bishops, the Pope, pastors, denominational and non-denominational bodies, etc., with superior research and arguments.
-- Scott Aaronson in the next paragraph
Not that I don’t think this is a fair counterpoint to make, but in my own experience trying to find the best arguments for religion, I learned a lot more and got better reasoning talking to random laypeople than by asking priests and theologians.
Of course, the fact that I talked to a lot more laypeople than priests and theologians is most likely the determining factor here, but my experiences discussing the nature and details of climate change have not followed a similar pattern at all.
Just so I’m clear: do you believe the theology community (“bishops, the Pope, pastors, denominational and non-denominational bodies, etc.”) is as reliable an authority on the nature and existence of the thing atheists don’t believe in than the academic climatology community is on the nature and existence of the thing climate skeptics don’t believe in?
If so, then this makes perfect sense.
That said, my experience with both groups doesn’t justify such a belief.
The analogy doesn’t cohere. Nobody denies that climate exists; they disagree on what it is doing.
I agree that nobody denies climate exists, but I think that’s irrelevant to the question at hand.
To clarify that a bit… Aaronson asserted a relationship between “climate skeptics” and “the academic climatology community” with respect to some concept X which climate skeptics deny exists. We could get into a whole discussion about what exactly X is (it certainly isn’t climate), but rather than go down that road I simply referred to it as “the thing climate skeptics don’t believe in.”
Eugine_Nier asserted a relationship between “atheists” and “the theology community” with respect to some concept Y which atheists deny exists. We could similarly get into a whole discussion about what exactly Y is, but rather than go down that road I simply referred to it as “the thing atheists don’t believe in.”
If the theology community is in the same relationship to Y as the academic climatology community is to X, then the analogy holds.
I just don’t believe that the theology community is in that relationship to Y.
I believe Eugine_Nier is suggesting not that theology community is in the same relationship to Y as the academic climatology community is to X, but the reverse.
(nods) Yup. It’s the opposite of what he said, but he could easily have been speaking ironically.
Well, no. You’re an atheist. I’m sure a Christian climate skeptic would agree with you, with the terms reversed.
That is, a Christian climate skeptic would claim that their experience with both groups doesn’t justify the belief that the academic climatology community is as reliable an authority as the theology community?
In a trivial sense I agree with you, in that there’s all sorts of tribal signaling effects going on, but not if I assume honest discussion. In my experience, strongly identified Christians believe that most theologians are unreliable authorities on the nature of God.
Indeed, it would be hard for them to believe otherwise, since most theologians don’t consider Jesus Christ to have been uniquely divine.
Of course, if we implicitly restrict “the theology community” to “the Christian theology community,” as many Americans seem to, then you’re probably right for sufficiently narrow definitions of “Christian”.
Hmm, interesting point. At a guess, I’d say there probably is more disagreement among theologians than climatologists, so there does seem to be some asymmetry there.
On the other hand, if God is analogous to Global Warming (or whatever) then I suppose the analogy for those disputed details might be predictions of how soon we’ll all be flooded or killed by extreme weather or whatever and what, exactly, the solution is (including “there isn’t one”.) So there’s that.
If “God” refers to what theologians and atheists disagree about, and “Global Warming” refers to what climatologists and climate skeptics disagree about, then sure. I’d be cautious of assuming we agree on what those labels properly refer to more broadly, though.
Well, OK. Using that analogy, I guess I would say that if climatologists disagreed with each other about Global Warming as widely as theologians disagree with each other about God, I would not consider climatologists any more reliable a source of predictions of how soon we’ll all be flooded or killed by extreme weather or whatever and what, exactly, the solution is, than I consider theologists reliable as a source of predictions about God.
Yup. Hence the “or whatever”.
The point, of course, is that while they may disagree about the details, they all agree on the existence of the thing in question. Although TBH climatologists do seem to have more consensus than theologians.
It is not clear to me how to distinguish between “Christian, Buddhist, and Wiccan theologians agree on the existence of God but disagree on the details of God” and “Christian, Buddhist, and Wiccan theologians disagree on whether God exists”
This is almost entirely due to a lack of clarity about what “God” refers to.
Well, Buddhist, and Wiccan theologians are in a minority compared to Christian, Hindu, Deist and so on. And there is a spectrum of both Wiccan and Buddhist thought ranging from standard atheism + relevant cosmology to pretty clear Theism of various kinds (plus relevant cosmology.) Still, it’s probably more common than among climatologists, depending on how strictly we define “theologian”. (And “climatologist” for that matter, there are a good few fringe “climatologists” who push climate skepticism.)
Yup, agreed that how we define the sets makes a big difference.
If atheists really thought that theists believed just because the pastors did, then targeting the pastors would seem to be the best way to go about it, yes. Either by attacking their credibility or attempting to convince them otherwise/attack the emotional basis of their faith. Even if the playing field was uneven and the pastors were actually crooked, there just wouldn’t be any gain in going after the believers as individuals.
I can’t think of a reply to this that won’t start a game of reference class tennis; but I think there’s a possibility that Aaronson’s list is a more complete set of the relevant experts on the climate than your list is of the relevant experts on the existence of deities. If we grant the existence of deities, and merely wish to learn about their behavior; your list would be analogous to Aaronson’s.
Both lists end with “etc.”, so I have trouble calling either of them incomplete.
I think “etc.” is a request to the reader to be a good classifier—simply truncating the list at “etc.” is overfitting, and defeats the purpose of the “etc.” Contrariwise, construing “etc.” to mean “everything else, everywhere” is trying to make do with fewer parameters than you actually need. The proper use of “etc.” is to use the training examples to construct a good classifier, and flesh out members of the category by lazy evaluation as needed.
It’s not a reasonable presumption that “etc.” will cover “any arbitrary thing that happens to make trouble for your counterargument”.
If nothing else at least we’ve got that covered.