1a. The proposal here is not to get rid of the two-party system, but rather, to reduce polarization. My view here is that polarization is harmful.
1b. The proposal attempts to work within the two-party system, rather than create a true third party.
1c. Why do you think a two-party system has to do with a strong executive? Mathematical arguments suggest that plurality voting eventually results in a two-party system, because you’re usually wasting your vote if you vote for anyone other than the two candidates with the highest probability of winning. Similarly, mathematical arguments suggest that instant runoff voting will eventually result in a two-party system, because out of the top three candidates, the most moderate will often be “squeezed out” (instant runoff voting isn’t very kind to compromise candidates). Other voting methods are much more mathematically favorable to multi-party systems. Therefore I tend to assume that the voting method is the culprit. However, abstract arguments like this don’t necessarily reflect reality, so I’m open to the idea that a strong executive is the real culprit. But why do you think this?
1d. What happened in Germany?
2a. Gun control and immigration preferences differ a lot between the two parties. Recently, preferences about police funding are very different. I think budgetary differences are large. I believe there are many other issues. I have seen graphs illustrating that the increasing political polarization can be seen rather vividly by only looking at how politicians vote (IE it’s gotten much easier to predict party affiliation from what legislation a politician supports). Also, similar graphs for voters (IE it’s gotten much easier to separate republicans and democrats based on survey questions).
2b. But you’re right, policy questions are not really the main driver of polarization or of my personal perception of polarization, or even of my wish to reduce polarization. Rather, identity politics (the pressure to identify with one side or the other) is the main driver of all three. My wish for a “new center” is a wish for a (widely recognized) tribal affiliation which offers an alternative, and a “return to sanity” in the media resulting from this. (The point of the “kingmaker” mechanism is to incentivize rhetoric from both sides to be less extreme.)
My read is that the winner-take-all voting system causes the two-party system, which in turn amplifies polarization. Maybe voting reform can be the/an issue to unite the center? If we can destabilize the two-party attractor, I expect a new center would be a natural consequence without further effort (or things would shift such that “new center” is no longer a meaningful/useful concept).
1a. The proposal here is not to get rid of the two-party system, but rather, to reduce polarization. My view here is that polarization is harmful.
1b. The proposal attempts to work within the two-party system, rather than create a true third party.
1c. Why do you think a two-party system has to do with a strong executive? Mathematical arguments suggest that plurality voting eventually results in a two-party system, because you’re usually wasting your vote if you vote for anyone other than the two candidates with the highest probability of winning. Similarly, mathematical arguments suggest that instant runoff voting will eventually result in a two-party system, because out of the top three candidates, the most moderate will often be “squeezed out” (instant runoff voting isn’t very kind to compromise candidates). Other voting methods are much more mathematically favorable to multi-party systems. Therefore I tend to assume that the voting method is the culprit. However, abstract arguments like this don’t necessarily reflect reality, so I’m open to the idea that a strong executive is the real culprit. But why do you think this?
1d. What happened in Germany?
2a. Gun control and immigration preferences differ a lot between the two parties. Recently, preferences about police funding are very different. I think budgetary differences are large. I believe there are many other issues. I have seen graphs illustrating that the increasing political polarization can be seen rather vividly by only looking at how politicians vote (IE it’s gotten much easier to predict party affiliation from what legislation a politician supports). Also, similar graphs for voters (IE it’s gotten much easier to separate republicans and democrats based on survey questions).
2b. But you’re right, policy questions are not really the main driver of polarization or of my personal perception of polarization, or even of my wish to reduce polarization. Rather, identity politics (the pressure to identify with one side or the other) is the main driver of all three. My wish for a “new center” is a wish for a (widely recognized) tribal affiliation which offers an alternative, and a “return to sanity” in the media resulting from this. (The point of the “kingmaker” mechanism is to incentivize rhetoric from both sides to be less extreme.)
What do you do if both defect?
Select whoever defected least.
An important mechanism for avoiding this failure mode would be to encourage new-centrists to be involved in political primaries.
My read is that the winner-take-all voting system causes the two-party system, which in turn amplifies polarization. Maybe voting reform can be the/an issue to unite the center? If we can destabilize the two-party attractor, I expect a new center would be a natural consequence without further effort (or things would shift such that “new center” is no longer a meaningful/useful concept).
Totally agree.