I don’t feel very well informed and I haven’t thought about it that much, but in short timelines (e.g. my 25th percentile): I expect that we know what’s going on roughly within 6 months of it happening, but this isn’t salient to the broader world. So, maybe the DC tech policy staffers know that the AI people think the situation is crazy, but maybe this isn’t very salient to them. A 6 month delay could be pretty fatal even for us as things might progress very rapidly.
I don’t feel very well informed and I haven’t thought about it that much, but in short timelines (e.g. my 25th percentile): I expect that we know what’s going on roughly within 6 months of it happening, but this isn’t salient to the broader world. So, maybe the DC tech policy staffers know that the AI people think the situation is crazy, but maybe this isn’t very salient to them. A 6 month delay could be pretty fatal even for us as things might progress very rapidly.