You’re assuming that the updates are mathematical and unbiased, which is the opposite of how people actually work. If your updates are highly biased, it is very easy to just make large updates in that direction any time new evidence shows up. As you get more sure of yourself, these updates start getting larger and larger rather than smaller as they should.
I’m hardly missing the point. It isn’t impressive to have it be exactly 75%, not more or less, so the fact that it can’t always be that is irrelevant. His point isn’t that that particular exact number matters, it’s that the number eventually becomes very small. But since the number being very small compared to what it should be does not prevent it from being made smaller by the same ratio, his point is meaningless. It isn’t impressive to fulfill an obvious bias toward updating in a certain direction.
My point was that (0.25)^n for large n is very small, so no, it would not be easy.
You’re assuming that the updates are mathematical and unbiased, which is the opposite of how people actually work. If your updates are highly biased, it is very easy to just make large updates in that direction any time new evidence shows up. As you get more sure of yourself, these updates start getting larger and larger rather than smaller as they should.
I’m hardly missing the point. It isn’t impressive to have it be exactly 75%, not more or less, so the fact that it can’t always be that is irrelevant. His point isn’t that that particular exact number matters, it’s that the number eventually becomes very small. But since the number being very small compared to what it should be does not prevent it from being made smaller by the same ratio, his point is meaningless. It isn’t impressive to fulfill an obvious bias toward updating in a certain direction.