Well, sometimes they can, because sometimes the impending consumption of the resource is sort of obvious. Imagine a room that’s gradually filling with a thin layer of petrol on the floor, with a bunch of kids playing with matches in it.
No, because the events which led to the unification of the Mongol tribes by Gengis Khan were highly contingent.
However, the military power overhang of the steppe peoples vs agrarian states should have been obvious for anyone since both the Huns and the Turks did the same thing centuries before.
Could an alien observer have identified Genghis Khan’s and the Mongol’s future prospects
Well, probably not to that level of specificity, but I think the general idea of empires consuming vulnerable lands and smaller groups would have been obvious
Well, sometimes they can, because sometimes the impending consumption of the resource is sort of obvious. Imagine a room that’s gradually filling with a thin layer of petrol on the floor, with a bunch of kids playing with matches in it.
Could an alien observer have identified Genghis Khan’s and the Mongol’s future prospects when he was a teenager?
I’m not quite sure.
No, because the events which led to the unification of the Mongol tribes by Gengis Khan were highly contingent.
However, the military power overhang of the steppe peoples vs agrarian states should have been obvious for anyone since both the Huns and the Turks did the same thing centuries before.
Well, probably not to that level of specificity, but I think the general idea of empires consuming vulnerable lands and smaller groups would have been obvious