No, because the events which led to the unification of the Mongol tribes by Gengis Khan were highly contingent.
However, the military power overhang of the steppe peoples vs agrarian states should have been obvious for anyone since both the Huns and the Turks did the same thing centuries before.
Could an alien observer have identified Genghis Khan’s and the Mongol’s future prospects
Well, probably not to that level of specificity, but I think the general idea of empires consuming vulnerable lands and smaller groups would have been obvious
Could an alien observer have identified Genghis Khan’s and the Mongol’s future prospects when he was a teenager?
I’m not quite sure.
No, because the events which led to the unification of the Mongol tribes by Gengis Khan were highly contingent.
However, the military power overhang of the steppe peoples vs agrarian states should have been obvious for anyone since both the Huns and the Turks did the same thing centuries before.
Well, probably not to that level of specificity, but I think the general idea of empires consuming vulnerable lands and smaller groups would have been obvious